UMASS LOWELL
RIVER HAWKSUML
15-17 | Road
69
UMBC
RETRIEVERSUMBC
22-8 | Home
91
AI Model Win Probability
RIVER HAWKS
100%
RETRIEVERS
0%
RIVER HAWKS
--
RETRIEVERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
UMBC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (UMBC)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UMBC -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UMBC)
UML By 1-7 points
0.6%
UML By 8-14 points
0.1%
UMBC By 1-7 points
4.0%
UMBC By 8-14 points
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
UMass Lowell
61
UMASS LOWELL
UMBC
85
UMBC
Simulated Score
UMass Lowell
77
UMASS LOWELL
UMBC
62
UMBC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Retrievers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
River Hawks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Retrievers (-7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim
River Hawks (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u147.5
Loss
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 10, 2026
UML @ UMBC
69 - 91
Feb 28, 2026
UMBC @ UML
84 - 60
Jan 24, 2026
UML @ UMBC
56 - 79
Feb 20, 2025
UMBC @ UML
79 - 98
Feb 1, 2025
UML @ UMBC
83 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+16.0%
UMBC: 83.0%
vs
UMass Lowell: 67.0%
Steals (L5)
+13.0% more
UMBC: 6.1
vs
UMass Lowell: 5.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.3%
UMBC: 38.9%
vs
UMass Lowell: 29.7%
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.7%
UMBC: 50.5%
vs
UMass Lowell: 44.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UML Score
61.0
69
UMBC Score
85.0
91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.9 / 29.7
45.0 / 35.0
Assists
11.5 / 15.1
15.0 / 6.0
Blocks
2.1 / 2.6
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
50.5 / 44.8
54.0 / 36.0
Free Throw %
83.0 / 67.0
73.0 / 91.0
Rebounding
37.1 / 37.6
37.0 / 37.0
Steals
6.1 / 5.4
10.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
8.6 / 9.2
6.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UML
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: -1.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
UMBC
Advantage
24-9-0
(72.7%)
Margin: 8.8
ATS +/-: +6.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UML
16-14-0
(53.3%)
Margin: -1.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
UMBC
Advantage
19-12-0
(61.3%)
Margin: 8.8
ATS +/-: +6.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UML
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +1.2
UMBC
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UMBC
UML
UMBC
UML
ML
58%
18-13
70%
23-10
55%
17-14
58%
19-14
ATS
68%
21-10
70%
23-10
55%
17-14
58%
19-14
TTL
39%
12-19
58%
19-14
100%
31-0
100%
33-0
Contextual Game News
