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COLUMBUS

BLUE JACKETSCBJ

32-21-10  |  Road

5
FINAL
Tue, Mar 10 • 7:00 PM ET
Benchmark International Arena
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

LIGHTNINGTB

39-19-4  |  Home

2
Goaltending
Elvis Merzlikins
GOALTENDER

Elvis Merzlikins

#90 | G
@
Andrei Vasilevskiy
GOALTENDER

Andrei Vasilevskiy

#88 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Elvis Merzlikins None-None 2.02 0.889 --
Andrei Vasilevskiy None-None 4.01 0.871 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.02 Ldr GAA 4.01
0.889 Ldr Save % 0.871
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JACKETS
100%
📊
LIGHTNING
0%
BLUE JACKETS --
LIGHTNING --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
Blue JacketsCBJ (-3.5) 0 LightningTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Jackets Cover

30.9%

Lightning Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

CBJ By 1 goal

12.1%

CBJ By 2-3 goals

9.3%

TB By 1 goal

19.7%

TB By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
2
COLUMBUS
3
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
2
COLUMBUS
4
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lightning Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lightning Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lightning (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Lightning (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 10, 2026 CBJ @ TB 5 - 2
Jan 24, 2026 TB @ CBJ 5 - 8
Oct 18, 2025 TB @ CBJ 2 - 3
Mar 4, 2025 CBJ @ TB 2 - 6
Dec 17, 2024 CBJ @ TB 3 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +69.3% more
Tampa Bay: 29.5 vs Columbus: 17.4
Shots on Goal (L5) +38.9% more
Tampa Bay: 33.2 vs Columbus: 23.9
Power Play % (L5) +17.3%
Tampa Bay: 31.5% vs Columbus: 14.2%
Takeaways (L5) +22.2% more
Columbus: 4.2 vs Tampa Bay: 3.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CBJ Score 2.0 5
TB Score 3.0 2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
84%MONEY16%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
CBJ
TB
CBJ
ML
67% 2-1
50% 1-1
67% 2-1
100% 2-0
ATS
67% 2-1
50% 1-1
33% 1-2
50% 1-1
TTL
67% 2-1
50% 1-1
100% 3-0
0% 0-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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