Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Panthers MOST @ FIU

MISSOURI STATE

BEARSMOST

14-17  |  Road

75
FINAL
Tue, Mar 10 • 6:30 PM ET
Propst Arena
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

PANTHERSFIU

15-16  |  Home

72
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
0%
📊
PANTHERS
100%
BEARS --
PANTHERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
BearsMOST (-3.5) 0 PanthersFIU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

46.0%

Panthers Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around FIU +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FIU)

MOST By 1-7 points

26.2%

MOST By 8-14 points

16.9%

FIU By 1-7 points

24.3%

FIU By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
71
MISSOURI STATE
70
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Simulated Score
68
MISSOURI STATE
75
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bears Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Panthers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Panthers (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Panthers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 10, 2026 MOST @ FIU 75 - 72
Feb 21, 2026 MOST @ FIU 67 - 70
Jan 10, 2026 FIU @ MOST 71 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +11.8% more
Missouri State: 16.0 vs Florida International: 14.1
Blocks (L5) +201.2% more
Florida International: 5.1 vs Missouri State: 1.7
Steals (L5) +73.9% more
Florida International: 7.4 vs Missouri State: 4.3
Turnovers (L5) +44.4% more
Florida International: 13.5 vs Missouri State: 9.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MOST Score 71.0 75
FIU Score 70.0 72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.8 / 33.0 21.0 / 42.0
Assists 14.1 / 16.0 6.0 / 18.0
Blocks 5.1 / 1.7 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.7 / 45.0 47.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 71.2 / 71.6 63.0 / 55.0
Rebounding 38.1 / 32.4 38.0 / 27.0
Steals 7.4 / 4.3 6.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 13.5 / 9.4 14.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
25%MONEY75%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MOST Advantage
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
FIU
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MOST Advantage
18-13-0 (58.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
FIU
16-13-0 (55.2%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MOST
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7% Total +/-: +3.2
FIU
15-13-1
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FIU
MOST
FIU
MOST
ML
58% 18-13
65% 22-12
65% 20-11
62% 21-13
ATS
52% 16-15
68% 23-11
65% 20-11
62% 21-13
TTL
65% 20-11
44% 15-19
100% 31-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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