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BAYLOR

BEARSBAY

16-15  |  Road

79
FINAL
Tue, Mar 10 • 12:30 PM ET
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ARIZONA STATE

SUN DEVILSASU

16-15  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
0%
📊
SUN DEVILS
100%
BEARS --
SUN DEVILS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
BAYLOR
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Baylor)
BearsBAY (-3.5) 0 Sun DevilsASU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

84.1%

Sun Devils Cover

15.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BAY -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAY)

BAY By 1-7 points

23.0%

BAY By 8-14 points

27.2%

ASU By 1-7 points

10.7%

ASU By 8-14 points

3.3%

AI Model Projected Score
78
BAYLOR
68
ARIZONA STATE
Simulated Score
69
BAYLOR
78
ARIZONA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bears Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Sun Devils Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bears (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Sun Devils (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u152.5 Loss
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 10, 2026 BAY @ ASU 79 - 83
Feb 21, 2026 ASU @ BAY 68 - 73
Jan 11, 2025 BAY @ ASU 72 - 66
Nov 24, 2021 ASU @ BAY 63 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +23.9% more
Baylor: 17.8 vs Arizona State: 13.6
Steals (L5) +11.8% more
Baylor: 6.7 vs Arizona State: 5.9
Field Goal % (L5) +8.1%
Baylor: 51.2% vs Arizona State: 43.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.9%
Baylor: 36.7% vs Arizona State: 33.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAY Score 78.0 79
ASU Score 68.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.8 / 36.7 36.0 / 24.0
Assists 13.6 / 17.8 11.0 / 12.0
Blocks 5.3 / 1.4 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.1 / 51.2 57.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 80.0 / 79.5 59.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 33.6 / 31.3 33.0 / 36.0
Steals 5.9 / 6.7 9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 14.8 / 9.3 15.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
66%MONEY34%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAY
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
ASU Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAY
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
ASU Advantage
20-12-1 (62.5%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
BAY
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +3.0
ASU
16-17-0
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ASU
BAY
ASU
BAY
ML
52% 17-16
58% 19-14
68% 21-10
53% 17-15
ATS
52% 17-16
58% 19-14
68% 21-10
53% 17-15
TTL
64% 21-12
45% 15-18
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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