Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Nittany Lions @ Wildcats PSU @ NU

PENN STATE

NITTANY LIONSPSU

12-19  |  Road

66
FINAL
Tue, Mar 10 • 7:30 PM ET
United Center
View Odds Details →

NORTHWESTERN

WILDCATSNU

13-18  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
NITTANY LIONS
0%
📊
WILDCATS
100%
NITTANY LIONS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
155.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
NORTHWESTERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Nittany LionsPSU (-3.5) 0 WildcatsNU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nittany Lions Cover

46.0%

Wildcats Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NU +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NU)

PSU By 1-7 points

26.2%

PSU By 8-14 points

16.9%

NU By 1-7 points

24.3%

NU By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
78
PENN STATE
77
NORTHWESTERN
Simulated Score
70
PENN STATE
72
NORTHWESTERN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Nittany Lions Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wildcats (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o143.5 Loss
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 10, 2026 PSU @ NU 66 - 76
Jan 29, 2026 PSU @ NU 73 - 94
Jan 2, 2025 NU @ PSU 80 - 84
Feb 11, 2024 PSU @ NU 63 - 68
Jan 10, 2024 NU @ PSU 76 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +24.7% more
Penn State: 11.7 vs Northwestern: 8.8
Assists (L5) +43.7% more
Northwestern: 16.2 vs Penn State: 11.3
Blocks (L5) +22.8% more
Northwestern: 3.1 vs Penn State: 2.5
Free Throw % (L5) +10.1%
Northwestern: 81.6% vs Penn State: 71.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PSU Score 78.0 66
NU Score 77.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.2 / 30.1 29.0 / 44.0
Assists 16.2 / 11.3 21.0 / 18.0
Blocks 3.1 / 2.5 0.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 45.6 / 45.6 51.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 81.6 / 71.5 73.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 25.8 / 27.2 28.0 / 22.0
Steals 6.2 / 6.2 9.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 8.8 / 11.7 8.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
21%MONEY79%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
NU Advantage
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
NU Advantage
16-16-2 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
PSU
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +1.8
NU
15-18-1
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NU
PSU
NU
PSU
ML
47% 16-18
72% 23-9
68% 23-11
56% 18-14
ATS
50% 17-17
72% 23-9
68% 23-11
56% 18-14
TTL
53% 18-16
66% 21-11
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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