SIENA
SAINTSSIE
22-11 | Road
64
MERRIMACK
WARRIORSMRMK
23-10 | Home
54
AI Model Win Probability
SAINTS
100%
WARRIORS
0%
SAINTS
--
WARRIORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MERRIMACK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Merrimack)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MRMK -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRMK)
SIE By 1-7 points
24.3%
SIE By 8-14 points
13.7%
MRMK By 1-7 points
26.2%
MRMK By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Siena
71
SIENA
Merrimack
72
MERRIMACK
Simulated Score
Siena
70
SIENA
Merrimack
76
MERRIMACK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Warriors
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Warriors
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Warriors (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Warriors (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o128.5
Loss
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim
u128.5
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 10, 2026
SIE @ MRMK
64 - 54
Feb 20, 2026
SIE @ MRMK
72 - 79
Jan 9, 2026
MRMK @ SIE
63 - 59
Jan 18, 2025
SIE @ MRMK
58 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+132.6% more
Merrimack: 9.1
vs
Siena: 3.9
Blocks (L5)
+60.8% more
Merrimack: 5.5
vs
Siena: 3.4
Rebounding (L5)
+20.1% more
Siena: 36.0
vs
Merrimack: 28.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.0%
Siena: 37.3%
vs
Merrimack: 33.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SIE Score
71.0
64
MRMK Score
72.0
54
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.4 / 37.3
32.0 / 25.0
Assists
14.1 / 14.7
9.0 / 13.0
Blocks
5.5 / 3.4
11.0 / 10.0
Field Goal %
41.5 / 43.0
29.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
79.4 / 82.1
77.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
28.8 / 36.0
26.0 / 50.0
Steals
9.1 / 3.9
8.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
8.8 / 9.4
6.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SIE
23-12-0
(65.7%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.3
MRMK
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 2.1
ATS +/-: +2.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SIE
Advantage
21-14-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.3
MRMK
19-14-1
(57.6%)
Margin: 2.1
ATS +/-: +2.8
⚖️ Over/Under
SIE
11-24-0
O: 31.4% / U: 68.6%
Total +/-: -1.9
MRMK
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7%
Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MRMK
SIE
MRMK
SIE
ML
47%
16-18
66%
23-12
65%
22-12
48%
16-17
ATS
53%
18-16
66%
23-12
65%
22-12
48%
16-17
TTL
62%
21-13
54%
19-16
100%
34-0
100%
33-0
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