Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Eagles @ Trojans GASO @ TROY

GEORGIA SOUTHERN

EAGLESGASO

21-15  |  Road

61
FINAL
Mon, Mar 9 • 7:00 PM ET
Pensacola Bay Center
View Odds Details →

TROY

TROJANSTROY

21-11  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
📊
TROJANS
0%
EAGLES --
TROJANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
TROY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Troy)
EaglesGASO (-3.5) 0 TrojansTROY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

9.7%

Trojans Cover

90.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TROY -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TROY)

GASO By 1-7 points

6.8%

GASO By 8-14 points

1.7%

TROY By 1-7 points

18.6%

TROY By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
74
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
87
TROY
Simulated Score
65
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
72
TROY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Trojans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Trojans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Trojans (-5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Trojans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o152.5 Loss
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 9, 2026 GASO @ TROY 61 - 77
Jan 24, 2026 TROY @ GASO 83 - 78
Jan 30, 2025 GASO @ TROY 74 - 81
Feb 1, 2024 TROY @ GASO 84 - 63
Feb 5, 2022 TROY @ GASO 61 - 52
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +51.5% more
Troy: 5.4 vs Georgia Southern: 3.6
Assists (L5) +24.1% more
Troy: 14.7 vs Georgia Southern: 11.8
Turnovers (L5) +19.5% more
Troy: 11.9 vs Georgia Southern: 10.0
Steals (L5) +15.3% more
Georgia Southern: 7.0 vs Troy: 5.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GASO Score 74.0 61
TROY Score 87.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.5 / 37.4 29.0 / 29.0
Assists 14.7 / 11.8 17.0 / 8.0
Blocks 5.4 / 3.6 0.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.1 / 47.3 59.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 76.7 / 78.5 71.0 / 100.0
Rebounding 37.8 / 35.5 35.0 / 18.0
Steals 5.9 / 7.0 7.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 11.9 / 10.0 16.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GASO
21-16-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: -0.1
TROY Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GASO
17-18-0 (48.6%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: -0.1
TROY Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
GASO
18-17-0
O: 51.4% / U: 48.6% Total +/-: +2.6
TROY
14-16-2
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TROY
GASO
TROY
GASO
ML
59% 20-14
56% 20-16
61% 20-13
58% 19-14
ATS
65% 22-12
64% 23-13
61% 20-13
58% 19-14
TTL
56% 19-15
61% 22-14
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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