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OREGON STATE

BEAVERSORST

17-15  |  Road

56
FINAL
Mon, Mar 9 • 9:00 PM ET
Orleans Arena
View Odds Details →

GONZAGA

BULLDOGSGONZ

28-3  |  Home

65
AI Model Win Probability
BEAVERS
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
BEAVERS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
169.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
GONZAGA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Gonzaga)
BeaversORST (-3.5) 0 BulldogsGONZ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Beavers Cover

24.2%

Bulldogs Cover

75.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GONZ -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GONZ)

ORST By 1-7 points

15.3%

ORST By 8-14 points

5.8%

GONZ By 1-7 points

26.2%

GONZ By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
81
OREGON STATE
88
GONZAGA
Simulated Score
68
OREGON STATE
85
GONZAGA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (+20.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o144.5 Loss
Proj Total: 169.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 9, 2026 ORST @ GONZ 56 - 65
Feb 7, 2026 GONZ @ ORST 81 - 61
Jan 28, 2025 ORST @ GONZ 60 - 98
Jan 16, 2025 GONZ @ ORST 89 - 97
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +32.7% more
Gonzaga: 6.5 vs Oregon State: 4.9
Blocks (L5) +21.1% more
Gonzaga: 4.3 vs Oregon State: 3.6
Turnovers (L5) +27.1% more
Oregon State: 12.2 vs Gonzaga: 8.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.0%
Oregon State: 36.9% vs Gonzaga: 29.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ORST Score 81.0 56
GONZ Score 88.0 65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.9 / 36.9 21.0 / 24.0
Assists 16.4 / 17.6 17.0 / 10.0
Blocks 4.3 / 3.6 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 46.8 / 45.8 47.0 / 34.0
Free Throw % 78.2 / 78.2 92.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 35.0 / 34.6 35.0 / 33.0
Steals 6.5 / 4.9 8.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 8.9 / 12.2 10.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORST
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
GONZ Advantage
31-4-0 (88.6%)
Margin: 18.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORST
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
GONZ Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 18.1 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ORST
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4% Total +/-: +1.1
GONZ
10-25-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4% Total +/-: -5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GONZ
ORST
GONZ
ORST
ML
71% 25-10
45% 15-18
69% 20-9
59% 19-13
ATS
69% 24-11
48% 16-17
69% 20-9
59% 19-13
TTL
57% 20-15
55% 18-15
100% 29-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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