Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Norse @ Raiders NKU @ WRST

NORTHERN KENTUCKY

NORSENKU

20-13  |  Road

90
FINAL
Mon, Mar 9 • 7:00 PM ET
Corteva Coliseum
View Odds Details →

WRIGHT STATE

RAIDERSWRST

21-11  |  Home

103
AI Model Win Probability
NORSE
0%
📊
RAIDERS
100%
NORSE --
RAIDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
176.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Northern Kentucky)
NorseNKU (-3.5) 0 RaidersWRST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Norse Cover

65.5%

Raiders Cover

34.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NKU -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NKU)

NKU By 1-7 points

27.4%

NKU By 8-14 points

21.6%

WRST By 1-7 points

20.1%

WRST By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
90
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
86
WRIGHT STATE
Simulated Score
75
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
78
WRIGHT STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Norse Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Raiders Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Norse (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Raiders (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o157.5 Win
Proj Total: 176.0
D
Sim u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 9, 2026 NKU @ WRST 90 - 103
Feb 28, 2026 WRST @ NKU 92 - 91
Jan 24, 2026 NKU @ WRST 80 - 88
Feb 21, 2025 NKU @ WRST 80 - 76
Jan 18, 2025 WRST @ NKU 78 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +24.6% more
Northern Kentucky: 18.5 vs Wright State: 14.0
Steals (L5) +18.6% more
Northern Kentucky: 7.3 vs Wright State: 5.9
Blocks (L5) +13.6% more
Northern Kentucky: 3.4 vs Wright State: 2.9
Turnovers (L5) +35.2% more
Wright State: 11.3 vs Northern Kentucky: 8.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NKU Score 90.0 90
WRST Score 86.0 103
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.3 / 39.0 43.0 / 39.0
Assists 14.0 / 18.5 17.0 / 16.0
Blocks 2.9 / 3.4 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 51.7 / 48.1 56.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 75.3 / 70.3 85.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 37.9 / 36.3 31.0 / 36.0
Steals 5.9 / 7.3 10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.3 / 8.4 10.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NKU
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 5.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
WRST Advantage
23-12-0 (65.7%)
Margin: 6.8 ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NKU
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 5.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
WRST Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 6.8 ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
NKU
21-10-0
O: 67.7% / U: 32.3% Total +/-: +5.4
WRST
16-17-0
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WRST
NKU
WRST
NKU
ML
37% 13-22
53% 18-16
63% 22-13
65% 22-12
ATS
46% 16-19
56% 19-15
63% 22-13
65% 22-12
TTL
63% 22-13
68% 23-11
100% 35-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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