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DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

39-25  |  Road

126
FINAL
Mon, Mar 9 • 7:30 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

50-15  |  Home

129
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
NUGGETS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
245.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Oklahoma City)
NuggetsDEN (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nuggets Cover

38.2%

Thunder Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

DEN By 1-7 points

21.6%

DEN By 8-14 points

10.7%

OKC By 1-7 points

27.2%

OKC By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
121
DENVER
124
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
114
DENVER
118
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o234.0 Win
Proj Total: 245.0
D
Sim u234.0 Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 10, 2026 OKC @ DEN 107 - 127
Mar 9, 2026 DEN @ OKC 126 - 129
Feb 27, 2026 DEN @ OKC 121 - 127
Feb 1, 2026 OKC @ DEN 121 - 111
May 18, 2025 DEN @ OKC 93 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +65.9% more
Oklahoma City: 8.6 vs Denver: 5.2
Blocks (L5) +33.3% more
Oklahoma City: 2.8 vs Denver: 2.1
Rebounding (L5) +11.5% more
Oklahoma City: 43.9 vs Denver: 39.4
Free Throw % (L5) +7.5%
Oklahoma City: 86.3% vs Denver: 78.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 121.0 126
OKC Score 124.0 129
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.6 / 32.7 40.0 / 41.0
Assists 23.7 / 27.4 27.0 / 29.0
Blocks 2.8 / 2.1 9.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.7 / 48.3 51.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 86.3 / 78.8 76.0 / 72.0
Rebounding 43.9 / 39.4 37.0 / 56.0
Steals 8.6 / 5.2 3.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 13.3 / 15.6 3.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
63%MONEY37%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
DEN
OKC
DEN
ML
70% 80-34
54% 57-48
48% 46-49
55% 47-39
ATS
73% 83-30-1
63% 65-38-2
48% 46-49
55% 47-39
TTL
67% 76-38
54% 56-48-1
100% 95-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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