Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bears @ Grizzlies UNCO @ MONT

NORTHERN COLORADO

BEARSUNCO

20-11  |  Road

89
FINAL
Mon, Mar 9 • 7:30 PM ET
Idaho Central Arena
View Odds Details →

MONTANA

GRIZZLIESMONT

16-15  |  Home

95
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
0%
📊
GRIZZLIES
100%
BEARS --
GRIZZLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
MONTANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
BearsUNCO (-3.5) 0 GrizzliesMONT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

46.0%

Grizzlies Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MONT +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MONT)

UNCO By 1-7 points

26.2%

UNCO By 8-14 points

16.9%

MONT By 1-7 points

24.3%

MONT By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
74
NORTHERN COLORADO
73
MONTANA
Simulated Score
70
NORTHERN COLORADO
75
MONTANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bears Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Grizzlies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Grizzlies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u152.5 Loss
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 9, 2026 UNCO @ MONT 89 - 95
Mar 2, 2026 MONT @ UNCO 57 - 85
Jan 3, 2026 UNCO @ MONT 79 - 88
Mar 12, 2025 MONT @ UNCO 91 - 83
Feb 6, 2025 MONT @ UNCO 86 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +31.6% more
Northern Colorado: 3.7 vs Montana: 2.6
Rebounding (L5) +12.6% more
Northern Colorado: 36.8 vs Montana: 32.2
Free Throw % (L5) +10.4%
Northern Colorado: 79.2% vs Montana: 68.8%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.3%
Northern Colorado: 49.1% vs Montana: 44.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNCO Score 74.0 89
MONT Score 73.0 95
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.2 / 35.5 38.0 / 31.0
Assists 13.6 / 13.8 11.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.6 / 3.7 1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 44.9 / 49.1 53.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 68.8 / 79.2 83.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 32.2 / 36.8 36.0 / 34.0
Steals 5.5 / 5.8 2.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 13.1 / 9.3 9.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
86%MONEY14%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNCO Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.5
MONT
18-16-0 (52.9%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNCO Advantage
15-13-1 (53.6%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.5
MONT
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UNCO
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.7
MONT
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MONT
UNCO
MONT
UNCO
ML
39% 13-20
50% 16-16
73% 24-9
66% 21-11
ATS
55% 18-15
53% 17-15
73% 24-9
66% 21-11
TTL
59% 19-13-1
50% 16-16
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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