ALCORN STATE
BRAVESALCN
8-22 | Road
77
ALABAMA STATE
HORNETSALST
10-21 | Home
65
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
0%
HORNETS
100%
BRAVES
--
HORNETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
ALCORN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Alcorn State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ALCN -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALCN)
ALCN By 1-7 points
18.6%
ALCN By 8-14 points
26.8%
ALST By 1-7 points
6.8%
ALST By 8-14 points
1.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Alcorn State
79
ALCORN STATE
Alabama State
66
ALABAMA STATE
Simulated Score
Alcorn State
68
ALCORN STATE
Alabama State
72
ALABAMA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Braves
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hornets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Braves (-6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Hornets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o142.5
Loss
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim
u142.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 9, 2026
ALCN @ ALST
77 - 65
Jan 12, 2026
ALCN @ ALST
66 - 81
Jan 13, 2025
ALST @ ALCN
65 - 67
Jan 13, 2024
ALCN @ ALST
53 - 55
Jan 9, 2023
ALST @ ALCN
76 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+11.0% more
Alcorn State: 13.5
vs
Alabama State: 12.0
Steals (L5)
+9.4% more
Alcorn State: 7.9
vs
Alabama State: 7.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+1.9%
Alcorn State: 69.4%
vs
Alabama State: 67.5%
Blocks (L5)
+109.0% more
Alabama State: 5.6
vs
Alcorn State: 2.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ALCN Score
79.0
77
ALST Score
66.0
65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.7 / 22.8
21.0 / 25.0
Assists
11.4 / 8.8
14.0 / 15.0
Blocks
5.6 / 2.7
5.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
41.1 / 38.6
36.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
67.5 / 69.4
65.0 / 77.0
Rebounding
38.1 / 31.6
39.0 / 37.0
Steals
7.2 / 7.9
6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
12.0 / 13.5
9.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALCN
9-23-0
(28.1%)
Margin: -13.3
ATS +/-: -0.8
ALST
Advantage
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALCN
Advantage
17-14-1
(54.8%)
Margin: -13.3
ATS +/-: -0.8
ALST
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ALCN
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6%
Total +/-: -0.5
ALST
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ALST
ALCN
ALST
ALCN
ML
65%
20-11
66%
21-11
76%
19-6
75%
18-6
ATS
65%
20-11
68%
21-10-1
76%
19-6
75%
18-6
TTL
52%
16-15
47%
15-17
100%
25-0
100%
24-0
Contextual Game News
