SAN FRANCISCO
DONSSF
17-15 | Road
77
OREGON STATE
BEAVERSORST
16-15 | Home
78
AI Model Win Probability
DONS
100%
BEAVERS
0%
DONS
--
BEAVERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
165.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
OREGON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Oregon State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ORST -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORST)
SF By 1-7 points
15.3%
SF By 8-14 points
5.8%
ORST By 1-7 points
26.2%
ORST By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
San Francisco
79
SAN FRANCISCO
Oregon State
86
OREGON STATE
Simulated Score
San Francisco
78
SAN FRANCISCO
Oregon State
71
OREGON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Beavers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Dons
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Beavers (+3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Dons (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o145.5
Win
Proj Total: 165.0
D
Sim
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
SF @ ORST
77 - 78
Feb 12, 2026
ORST @ SF
90 - 63
Dec 30, 2025
SF @ ORST
62 - 70
Feb 26, 2025
SF @ ORST
74 - 72
Jan 18, 2025
ORST @ SF
70 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+24.8% more
Oregon State: 17.3
vs
San Francisco: 13.9
Turnovers (L5)
+13.3% more
Oregon State: 11.3
vs
San Francisco: 10.0
Rebounding (L5)
+9.2% more
Oregon State: 35.3
vs
San Francisco: 32.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.0%
Oregon State: 73.3%
vs
San Francisco: 68.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SF Score
79.0
77
ORST Score
86.0
78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.3 / 33.8
46.0 / 39.0
Assists
17.3 / 13.9
18.0 / 16.0
Blocks
2.3 / 3.3
6.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
45.1 / 44.8
47.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
73.3 / 68.2
88.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
35.3 / 32.4
33.0 / 36.0
Steals
5.8 / 5.6
3.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
11.3 / 10.0
14.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: 1.5
ATS +/-: -2.4
ORST
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 1.5
ATS +/-: -2.4
ORST
Advantage
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9%
Total +/-: +1.1
ORST
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4%
Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORST
SF
ORST
SF
ML
45%
15-18
39%
13-20
59%
19-13
64%
21-12
ATS
48%
16-17
42%
14-19
59%
19-13
64%
21-12
TTL
55%
18-15
73%
24-9
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
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