Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Red Foxes @ Warriors MRST @ MRMK

MARIST

RED FOXESMRST

19-11  |  Road

57
FINAL
Sun, Mar 8 • 6:00 PM ET
Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall
View Odds Details →

MERRIMACK

WARRIORSMRMK

22-10  |  Home

58
AI Model Win Probability
RED FOXES
0%
📊
WARRIORS
100%
RED FOXES --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
MARIST
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Marist)
Red FoxesMRST (-3.5) 0 WarriorsMRMK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Foxes Cover

65.5%

Warriors Cover

34.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MRST -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRST)

MRST By 1-7 points

27.4%

MRST By 8-14 points

21.6%

MRMK By 1-7 points

20.1%

MRMK By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
72
MARIST
68
MERRIMACK
Simulated Score
68
MARIST
72
MERRIMACK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Foxes Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Warriors Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Red Foxes (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Warriors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o128.5 Loss
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim u128.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 8, 2026 MRST @ MRMK 57 - 58
Feb 12, 2026 MRST @ MRMK 56 - 81
Jan 19, 2026 MRMK @ MRST 68 - 55
Mar 6, 2025 MRMK @ MRST 75 - 53
Feb 16, 2025 MRST @ MRMK 61 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +19.5% more
Marist: 37.5 vs Merrimack: 30.1
Blocks (L5) +8.9% more
Marist: 4.6 vs Merrimack: 4.2
Free Throw % (L5) +10.1%
Merrimack: 81.1% vs Marist: 70.9%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.0%
Merrimack: 43.7% vs Marist: 39.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MRST Score 72.0 57
MRMK Score 68.0 58
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.6 / 36.4 29.0 / 36.0
Assists 15.6 / 14.6 11.0 / 15.0
Blocks 4.2 / 4.6 8.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 43.7 / 39.8 37.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 81.1 / 70.9 76.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 30.1 / 37.5 26.0 / 38.0
Steals 7.7 / 8.3 12.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 8.7 / 9.4 9.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRST
19-12-0 (61.3%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: +1.6
MRMK Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: +2.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRST
15-13-1 (53.6%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: +1.6
MRMK Advantage
19-14-1 (57.6%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: +2.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MRST
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1% Total +/-: -3.0
MRMK
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7% Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MRMK
MRST
MRMK
MRST
ML
47% 16-18
55% 17-14
65% 22-12
61% 19-12
ATS
53% 18-16
74% 23-8
65% 22-12
61% 19-12
TTL
62% 21-13
52% 16-15
100% 34-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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