FAIRFIELD
STAGSFAIR
21-12 | Road
61
SIENA
SAINTSSIE
21-11 | Home
76
AI Model Win Probability
STAGS
0%
SAINTS
100%
STAGS
--
SAINTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
150.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
FAIRFIELD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Fairfield)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around FAIR -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FAIR)
FAIR By 1-7 points
25.3%
FAIR By 8-14 points
26.2%
SIE By 1-7 points
13.7%
SIE By 8-14 points
4.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Fairfield
79
FAIRFIELD
Siena
71
SIENA
Simulated Score
Fairfield
68
FAIRFIELD
Siena
72
SIENA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Stags
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Saints
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Stags (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Saints (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o137.5
Loss
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Sim
u137.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
FAIR @ SIE
61 - 76
Feb 27, 2026
SIE @ FAIR
58 - 72
Jan 19, 2026
FAIR @ SIE
77 - 85
Mar 6, 2025
FAIR @ SIE
64 - 68
Feb 25, 2024
SIE @ FAIR
64 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+42.5% more
Fairfield: 7.7
vs
Siena: 4.4
Turnovers (L5)
+23.9% more
Fairfield: 12.0
vs
Siena: 9.1
Rebounding (L5)
+16.5% more
Fairfield: 40.1
vs
Siena: 33.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.3%
Fairfield: 33.8%
vs
Siena: 29.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
FAIR Score
79.0
61
SIE Score
71.0
76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.5 / 33.8
53.0 / 26.0
Assists
13.1 / 12.9
18.0 / 12.0
Blocks
3.1 / 2.9
4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
41.6 / 41.3
46.0 / 36.0
Free Throw %
86.6 / 65.1
73.0 / 100.0
Rebounding
33.4 / 40.1
41.0 / 34.0
Steals
4.4 / 7.7
3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
9.1 / 12.0
10.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FAIR
21-13-0
(61.8%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
SIE
Advantage
23-12-0
(65.7%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FAIR
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
SIE
Advantage
21-14-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
FAIR
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6%
Total +/-: -0.2
SIE
11-24-0
O: 31.4% / U: 68.6%
Total +/-: -1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SIE
FAIR
SIE
FAIR
ML
66%
23-12
55%
18-15
48%
16-17
61%
20-13
ATS
66%
23-12
48%
16-17
48%
16-17
61%
20-13
TTL
54%
19-16
48%
16-17
100%
33-0
100%
33-0
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