WESTERN CAROLINA
CATAMOUNTSWCU
15-15 | Road
67
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
BUCCANEERSETSU
22-10 | Home
69
AI Model Win Probability
CATAMOUNTS
0%
BUCCANEERS
100%
CATAMOUNTS
--
BUCCANEERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ETSU +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ETSU)
WCU By 1-7 points
27.2%
WCU By 8-14 points
20.1%
ETSU By 1-7 points
21.6%
ETSU By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Western Carolina
76
WESTERN CAROLINA
East Tennessee State
73
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Simulated Score
Western Carolina
68
WESTERN CAROLINA
East Tennessee State
72
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Catamounts
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Buccaneers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Buccaneers (+3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim
Buccaneers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o146.5
Loss
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
WCU @ ETSU
67 - 69
Jan 29, 2026
WCU @ ETSU
90 - 88
Jan 14, 2026
ETSU @ WCU
68 - 72
Feb 12, 2025
ETSU @ WCU
67 - 76
Jan 22, 2025
WCU @ ETSU
58 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+32.3% more
Western Carolina: 2.4
vs
East Tennessee State: 1.6
Rebounding (L5)
+24.7% more
Western Carolina: 42.3
vs
East Tennessee State: 31.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.2%
Western Carolina: 74.6%
vs
East Tennessee State: 68.3%
Steals (L5)
+59.2% more
East Tennessee State: 7.1
vs
Western Carolina: 4.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WCU Score
76.0
67
ETSU Score
73.0
69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.9 / 33.5
35.0 / 29.0
Assists
14.6 / 11.0
10.0 / 9.0
Blocks
1.6 / 2.4
4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
51.3 / 44.8
47.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
68.3 / 74.6
62.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
31.9 / 42.3
29.0 / 37.0
Steals
7.1 / 4.5
8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
9.8 / 9.5
11.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WCU
15-16-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +1.8
ETSU
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WCU
Advantage
14-15-0
(48.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +1.8
ETSU
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
WCU
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: +2.5
ETSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9%
Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ETSU
WCU
ETSU
WCU
ML
42%
14-19
63%
19-11
70%
23-10
76%
22-7
ATS
58%
19-14
73%
22-8
70%
23-10
77%
23-7
TTL
45%
15-18
67%
20-10
100%
33-0
100%
30-0
