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UNC GREENSBORO

SPARTANSUNCG

15-18  |  Road

75
FINAL
Sun, Mar 8 • 6:30 PM ET
Harrah's Cherokee Center
View Odds Details →

FURMAN

PALADINSFUR

20-12  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
0%
📊
PALADINS
100%
SPARTANS --
PALADINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
FURMAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
SpartansUNCG (-3.5) 0 PaladinsFUR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spartans Cover

34.5%

Paladins Cover

65.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around FUR +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FUR)

UNCG By 1-7 points

27.4%

UNCG By 8-14 points

21.6%

FUR By 1-7 points

20.1%

FUR By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
76
UNC GREENSBORO
72
FURMAN
Simulated Score
67
UNC GREENSBORO
70
FURMAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Spartans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Paladins Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Paladins (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim Paladins (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o147.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 8, 2026 UNCG @ FUR 75 - 81
Feb 8, 2026 UNCG @ FUR 67 - 64
Jan 23, 2026 FUR @ UNCG 89 - 66
Feb 15, 2025 UNCG @ FUR 58 - 50
Jan 4, 2025 FUR @ UNCG 67 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +20.1% more
UNC Greensboro: 5.3 vs Furman: 4.2
Free Throw % (L5) +12.8%
UNC Greensboro: 78.5% vs Furman: 65.6%
Assists (L5) +9.0% more
UNC Greensboro: 13.3 vs Furman: 12.1
Field Goal % (L5) +2.5%
Furman: 48.0% vs UNC Greensboro: 45.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNCG Score 76.0 75
FUR Score 72.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.0 / 36.7 45.0 / 32.0
Assists 12.1 / 13.3 15.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.1 / 3.0 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.0 / 45.5 52.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 65.6 / 78.5 88.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 36.2 / 38.8 25.0 / 24.0
Steals 4.2 / 5.3 6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 9.1 / 9.2 12.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNCG
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: -1.0
FUR Advantage
22-13-0 (62.9%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNCG
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: -1.0
FUR Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UNCG
22-10-0
O: 68.8% / U: 31.3% Total +/-: +7.9
FUR
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FUR
UNCG
FUR
UNCG
ML
71% 25-10
38% 13-21
62% 21-13
71% 24-10
ATS
63% 22-13
44% 15-19
62% 21-13
71% 24-10
TTL
57% 20-15
76% 26-8
100% 34-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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