SOUTHERN MISS
GOLDEN EAGLESUSM
19-15 | Road
70
TROY
TROJANSTROY
20-11 | Home
78
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN EAGLES
0%
TROJANS
100%
GOLDEN EAGLES
--
TROJANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
TROY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TROY +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TROY)
USM By 1-7 points
26.2%
USM By 8-14 points
16.9%
TROY By 1-7 points
24.3%
TROY By 8-14 points
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Southern Miss
71
SOUTHERN MISS
Troy
70
TROY
Simulated Score
Southern Miss
68
SOUTHERN MISS
Troy
72
TROY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Golden Eagles
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Trojans
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Trojans (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim
Trojans (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u143.5
Loss
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
USM @ TROY
70 - 78
Feb 14, 2026
TROY @ USM
65 - 69
Jan 14, 2026
USM @ TROY
65 - 91
Feb 28, 2025
TROY @ USM
70 - 58
Jan 27, 2025
USM @ TROY
61 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+11.5% more
Southern Miss: 11.2
vs
Troy: 9.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.9%
Southern Miss: 37.1%
vs
Troy: 32.2%
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.2%
Southern Miss: 48.3%
vs
Troy: 44.2%
Assists (L5)
+54.1% more
Troy: 16.0
vs
Southern Miss: 10.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
USM Score
71.0
70
TROY Score
70.0
78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.2 / 37.1
18.0 / 11.0
Assists
16.0 / 10.4
12.0 / 13.0
Blocks
4.2 / 3.4
8.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
44.2 / 48.3
44.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
74.0 / 74.3
82.0 / 60.0
Rebounding
37.3 / 36.8
39.0 / 38.0
Steals
4.9 / 5.0
8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
9.9 / 11.2
16.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USM
19-16-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-: +1.4
TROY
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USM
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-: +1.4
TROY
Advantage
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
USM
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4%
Total +/-: +3.2
TROY
14-16-2
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: +2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TROY
USM
TROY
USM
ML
59%
20-14
53%
18-16
61%
20-13
73%
24-9
ATS
65%
22-12
59%
20-14
61%
20-13
74%
25-9
TTL
56%
19-15
68%
23-11
100%
33-0
100%
34-0
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