DETROIT
PISTONSDET
45-17 | Road
110
MIAMI
HEATMIA
35-29 | Home
121
AI Model Win Probability
PISTONS
0%
HEAT
100%
PISTONS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
229.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DET -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
DET By 1-7 points
26.2%
DET By 8-14 points
25.3%
MIA By 1-7 points
15.3%
MIA By 8-14 points
5.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
118
DETROIT
Miami
111
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Detroit
115
DETROIT
Miami
108
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pistons
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pistons
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pistons (+1)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Pistons (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u230.5
Loss
Proj Total: 229.0
D
Sim
u230.5
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
DET @ MIA
110 - 121
Jan 1, 2026
MIA @ DET
118 - 112
Nov 29, 2025
DET @ MIA
138 - 135
Mar 19, 2025
DET @ MIA
116 - 113
Dec 16, 2024
MIA @ DET
124 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+17.5% more
Detroit: 13.4
vs
Miami: 11.1
Steals (L5)
+12.9% more
Detroit: 10.4
vs
Miami: 9.1
Assists (L5)
+23.3% more
Miami: 28.9
vs
Detroit: 23.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.3%
Miami: 81.4%
vs
Detroit: 76.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
118.0
110
MIA Score
111.0
121
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.1 / 34.9
36.0 / 30.0
Assists
28.9 / 23.4
31.0 / 26.0
Blocks
5.8 / 6.0
5.0 / 12.0
Field Goal %
48.4 / 44.3
46.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
81.4 / 76.1
92.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
46.1 / 44.5
49.0 / 39.0
Steals
9.1 / 10.4
9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
11.1 / 13.4
12.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
DET
MIA
DET
ML
48%
46-50
55%
64-53
59%
48-34
49%
47-49
ATS
51%
49-47
53%
60-54-3
59%
48-34
49%
47-49
TTL
59%
57-39
60%
70-46-1
100%
82-0
100%
96-0
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