WASHINGTON
WIZARDSWSH
16-46 | Road
118
NEW ORLEANS
PELICANSNO
20-45 | Home
138
AI Model Win Probability
WIZARDS
100%
PELICANS
0%
WIZARDS
--
PELICANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
249.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (New Orleans)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NO -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)
WSH By 1-7 points
21.6%
WSH By 8-14 points
10.7%
NO By 1-7 points
27.2%
NO By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
123
WASHINGTON
New Orleans
126
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
Washington
118
WASHINGTON
New Orleans
109
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pelicans
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wizards
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pelicans (+11)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Wizards (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o244.5
Win
Proj Total: 249.0
D
Sim
u244.5
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
WSH @ NO
118 - 138
Jan 9, 2026
NO @ WSH
128 - 107
Jan 5, 2025
NO @ WSH
110 - 98
Jan 3, 2025
WSH @ NO
120 - 132
Feb 14, 2024
WSH @ NO
126 - 133
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+44.7% more
New Orleans: 6.0
vs
Washington: 4.1
Rebounding (L5)
+14.8% more
New Orleans: 45.3
vs
Washington: 39.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+12.1%
New Orleans: 84.4%
vs
Washington: 72.3%
Assists (L5)
+9.2% more
New Orleans: 24.3
vs
Washington: 22.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
123.0
118
NO Score
126.0
138
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.3 / 38.0
30.0 / 33.0
Assists
24.3 / 22.2
25.0 / 27.0
Blocks
6.0 / 4.1
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
46.3 / 47.2
53.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
84.4 / 72.3
79.0 / 81.0
Rebounding
45.3 / 39.5
44.0 / 41.0
Steals
8.3 / 7.8
11.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
15.5 / 15.8
8.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
17-65-0
(20.7%)
Margin: -12.0
ATS +/-: -1.4
NO
Advantage
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
33-49-0
(40.2%)
Margin: -12.0
ATS +/-: -1.4
NO
Advantage
45-36-1
(55.6%)
Margin: -4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7%
Total +/-: +3.3
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
WSH
NO
WSH
ML
62%
98-61
70%
112-49
58%
48-35
47%
39-44
ATS
68%
107-51-1
69%
111-49-1
58%
48-35
47%
39-44
TTL
75%
119-40
74%
119-41-1
100%
83-0
100%
83-0
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