DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
21-42 | Road
92
TORONTO
RAPTORSTOR
35-27 | Home
122
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
RAPTORS
0%
MAVERICKS
--
RAPTORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TOR -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
DAL By 1-7 points
24.3%
DAL By 8-14 points
13.7%
TOR By 1-7 points
26.2%
TOR By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
112
DALLAS
Toronto
113
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Dallas
109
DALLAS
Toronto
118
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Raptors
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Raptors
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Raptors (+9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Raptors (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u230.5
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Sim
u230.5
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
DAL @ TOR
92 - 122
Oct 26, 2025
TOR @ DAL
129 - 139
Apr 11, 2025
TOR @ DAL
102 - 124
Dec 7, 2024
DAL @ TOR
125 - 118
Feb 28, 2024
DAL @ TOR
136 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+57.8% more
Toronto: 7.5
vs
Dallas: 4.7
Field Goal % (L5)
+5.6%
Toronto: 48.5%
vs
Dallas: 42.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.1%
Toronto: 37.9%
vs
Dallas: 34.8%
Rebounding (L5)
+15.3% more
Dallas: 44.5
vs
Toronto: 37.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
112.0
92
TOR Score
113.0
122
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.9 / 34.8
28.0 / 17.0
Assists
24.7 / 23.5
39.0 / 22.0
Blocks
4.3 / 5.1
4.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
48.5 / 42.9
51.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
77.6 / 77.2
73.0 / 85.0
Rebounding
37.7 / 44.5
42.0 / 47.0
Steals
7.5 / 4.7
11.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
13.5 / 13.5
8.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
TOR
Advantage
49-40-0
(55.1%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
TOR
Advantage
46-43-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4%
Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
DAL
TOR
DAL
ML
55%
57-47
62%
63-39
55%
48-39
54%
44-37
ATS
61%
62-40-2
67%
68-34
55%
48-39
54%
44-37
TTL
60%
62-42
59%
60-41-1
100%
87-0
100%
81-0
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