BOSTON
CELTICSBOS
42-21 | Road
109
CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
39-24 | Home
98
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
100%
CAVALIERS
0%
CELTICS
--
CAVALIERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
259.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CLE -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
BOS By 1-7 points
18.6%
BOS By 8-14 points
8.0%
CLE By 1-7 points
27.2%
CLE By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
127
BOSTON
Cleveland
132
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Boston
105
BOSTON
Cleveland
112
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cavaliers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers (-1)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Cavaliers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o222.5
Loss
Proj Total: 259.0
D
Sim
u222.5
Win
Proj Total: 217.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
BOS @ CLE
109 - 98
Nov 30, 2025
BOS @ CLE
117 - 115
Oct 29, 2025
CLE @ BOS
105 - 125
Oct 12, 2025
CLE @ BOS
107 - 138
Feb 28, 2025
CLE @ BOS
123 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+71.3% more
Cleveland: 8.4
vs
Boston: 4.9
Turnovers (L5)
+8.5% more
Cleveland: 13.6
vs
Boston: 12.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.0%
Cleveland: 38.9%
vs
Boston: 34.9%
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.9%
Cleveland: 46.6%
vs
Boston: 44.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
127.0
109
CLE Score
132.0
98
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.9 / 34.9
29.0 / 39.0
Assists
27.2 / 26.6
23.0 / 25.0
Blocks
5.4 / 6.9
6.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
46.6 / 44.7
41.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
74.2 / 77.9
71.0 / 91.0
Rebounding
40.3 / 52.6
42.0 / 49.0
Steals
8.4 / 4.9
4.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
13.6 / 12.5
9.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
59-30-0
(66.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
CLE
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
Advantage
51-38-0
(57.3%)
Margin: 7.3
ATS +/-: +2.2
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0%
Total +/-: -3.2
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
BOS
CLE
BOS
ML
60%
69-46
57%
61-46
56%
55-44
53%
47-41
ATS
67%
75-37-3
59%
61-43-3
56%
55-44
53%
47-41
TTL
59%
68-47
56%
60-47
100%
99-0
100%
88-0
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