INDIANA
PACERSIND
15-48 | Road
111
PORTLAND
TRAIL BLAZERSPOR
30-34 | Home
131
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
PACERS
--
TRAIL BLAZERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
229.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+9.0
PORTLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around POR +9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (POR)
IND By 1-7 points
24.3%
IND By 8-14 points
26.8%
POR By 1-7 points
12.2%
POR By 8-14 points
4.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
119
INDIANA
Portland
110
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
Indiana
109
INDIANA
Portland
118
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pacers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Trail Blazers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Trail Blazers (+9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +9.0
D
Sim
Trail Blazers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u238.0
Loss
Proj Total: 229.0
D
Sim
u238.0
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 18, 2026
POR @ IND
127 - 119
Mar 8, 2026
IND @ POR
111 - 131
Feb 4, 2025
IND @ POR
89 - 112
Nov 27, 2024
POR @ IND
114 - 121
Jan 19, 2024
IND @ POR
115 - 118
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+19.7% more
Indiana: 29.7
vs
Portland: 23.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+11.4%
Indiana: 75.3%
vs
Portland: 63.9%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.6%
Indiana: 46.3%
vs
Portland: 43.7%
Steals (L5)
+62.8% more
Portland: 11.2
vs
Indiana: 6.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
119.0
111
POR Score
110.0
131
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.7 / 29.9
37.0 / 33.0
Assists
23.9 / 29.7
29.0 / 27.0
Blocks
6.0 / 4.3
8.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
43.7 / 46.3
51.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
63.9 / 75.3
81.0 / 63.0
Rebounding
44.5 / 38.2
53.0 / 38.0
Steals
11.2 / 6.9
5.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
16.6 / 12.7
14.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
POR
Advantage
44-44-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
POR
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
IND
POR
IND
ML
53%
56-49
48%
47-50
55%
49-40
54%
45-38
ATS
62%
65-39-1
59%
57-40
55%
49-40
54%
45-38
TTL
56%
58-46-1
54%
52-45
100%
89-0
100%
83-0
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