CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
32-32 | Road
99
PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
36-27 | Home
111
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
SUNS
0%
HORNETS
--
SUNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
233.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Phoenix)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PHX -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)
CHA By 1-7 points
15.3%
CHA By 8-14 points
5.8%
PHX By 1-7 points
26.2%
PHX By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Charlotte
113
CHARLOTTE
Phoenix
120
PHOENIX
Simulated Score
Charlotte
118
CHARLOTTE
Phoenix
107
PHOENIX
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Suns
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hornets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Suns (+4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Hornets (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o219.0
Loss
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Sim
u219.0
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 2, 2026
PHX @ CHA
107 - 127
Mar 8, 2026
CHA @ PHX
99 - 111
Jan 12, 2025
CHA @ PHX
113 - 120
Jan 7, 2025
PHX @ CHA
104 - 115
Mar 15, 2024
PHX @ CHA
107 - 96
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+20.1% more
Phoenix: 14.9
vs
Charlotte: 12.4
Blocks (L5)
+25.7% more
Charlotte: 5.9
vs
Phoenix: 4.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+11.5%
Charlotte: 83.0%
vs
Phoenix: 71.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.6%
Charlotte: 39.4%
vs
Phoenix: 33.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHA Score
113.0
99
PHX Score
120.0
111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.8 / 39.4
39.0 / 33.0
Assists
25.0 / 26.8
24.0 / 24.0
Blocks
4.4 / 5.9
5.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
42.2 / 45.6
46.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
71.4 / 83.0
88.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
44.8 / 47.6
40.0 / 41.0
Steals
8.7 / 8.5
5.0 / 1.0
Turnovers
14.9 / 12.4
8.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHA
Advantage
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
PHX
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
PHX
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHX
CHA
PHX
CHA
ML
57%
60-45
61%
60-39
51%
45-43
48%
40-44
ATS
58%
59-43-3
60%
59-40
51%
45-43
48%
40-44
TTL
59%
61-42-2
58%
57-42
100%
88-0
100%
84-0
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