NORTHERN KENTUCKY
NORSENKU
19-13 | Road
96
GREEN BAY
PHOENIXGB
18-14 | Home
76
AI Model Win Probability
NORSE
100%
PHOENIX
0%
NORSE
--
PHOENIX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
133.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
GREEN BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Green Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GB)
NKU By 1-7 points
24.3%
NKU By 8-14 points
13.7%
GB By 1-7 points
26.2%
GB By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Northern Kentucky
66
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Green Bay
67
GREEN BAY
Simulated Score
Northern Kentucky
73
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Green Bay
68
GREEN BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phoenix
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Norse
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Phoenix (+3.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Norse (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u147.5
Loss
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
NKU @ GB
96 - 76
Feb 4, 2026
GB @ NKU
87 - 84
Jan 11, 2026
NKU @ GB
78 - 80
Feb 14, 2025
NKU @ GB
73 - 60
Jan 4, 2025
GB @ NKU
60 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+14.9%
Green Bay: 82.3%
vs
Northern Kentucky: 67.4%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.4%
Green Bay: 50.0%
vs
Northern Kentucky: 47.6%
Steals (L5)
+43.5% more
Northern Kentucky: 7.5
vs
Green Bay: 4.2
Blocks (L5)
+38.9% more
Northern Kentucky: 4.1
vs
Green Bay: 2.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NKU Score
66.0
96
GB Score
67.0
76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.5 / 33.4
29.0 / 50.0
Assists
14.7 / 16.3
18.0 / 23.0
Blocks
2.5 / 4.1
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
50.0 / 47.6
51.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
82.3 / 67.4
95.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
32.2 / 36.0
25.0 / 37.0
Steals
4.2 / 7.5
1.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
8.5 / 10.6
9.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NKU
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 5.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
GB
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NKU
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 5.7
ATS +/-: -0.5
GB
Advantage
19-12-0
(61.3%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
NKU
21-10-0
O: 67.7% / U: 32.3%
Total +/-: +5.4
GB
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GB
NKU
GB
NKU
ML
48%
16-17
53%
18-16
67%
22-11
65%
22-12
ATS
52%
17-16
56%
19-15
67%
22-11
65%
22-12
TTL
58%
19-14
68%
23-11
100%
33-0
100%
34-0
Contextual Game News
