Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Demons @ Colonels NWST @ NICH

NORTHWESTERN STATE

DEMONSNWST

10-21  |  Road

47
FINAL
Sun, Mar 8 • 8:30 PM ET
Townsley Law Arena
View Odds Details →

NICHOLLS

COLONELSNICH

13-18  |  Home

61
AI Model Win Probability
DEMONS
0%
📊
COLONELS
100%
DEMONS --
COLONELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
NORTHWESTERN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Northwestern State)
DemonsNWST (-3.5) 0 ColonelsNICH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Demons Cover

69.1%

Colonels Cover

30.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NWST -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NWST)

NWST By 1-7 points

27.2%

NWST By 8-14 points

23.0%

NICH By 1-7 points

18.6%

NICH By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
75
NORTHWESTERN STATE
70
NICHOLLS
Simulated Score
67
NORTHWESTERN STATE
78
NICHOLLS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Demons Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Colonels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Demons (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Colonels (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o139.5 Loss
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 8, 2026 NWST @ NICH 47 - 61
Feb 2, 2026 NICH @ NWST 61 - 58
Jan 5, 2026 NWST @ NICH 72 - 74
Feb 10, 2025 NWST @ NICH 72 - 60
Jan 4, 2025 NICH @ NWST 66 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +11.2% more
Northwestern State: 2.7 vs Nicholls: 2.4
Free Throw % (L5) +7.3%
Northwestern State: 71.6% vs Nicholls: 64.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.6%
Northwestern State: 33.7% vs Nicholls: 30.1%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.1%
Northwestern State: 43.4% vs Nicholls: 40.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NWST Score 75.0 47
NICH Score 70.0 61
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.1 / 33.7 26.0 / 30.0
Assists 11.8 / 10.7 15.0 / 9.0
Blocks 2.4 / 2.7 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 40.3 / 43.4 45.0 / 29.0
Free Throw % 64.4 / 71.6 60.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 37.5 / 33.5 34.0 / 34.0
Steals 5.6 / 3.9 11.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 13.4 / 11.2 12.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
36%MONEY64%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NWST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
NICH Advantage
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NWST Advantage
16-13-1 (55.2%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
NICH
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NWST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.3
NICH
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NICH
NWST
NICH
NWST
ML
53% 17-15
68% 21-10
68% 19-9
77% 23-7
ATS
47% 15-17
68% 21-10
68% 19-9
77% 23-7
TTL
56% 18-14
39% 12-19
100% 28-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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