MICHIGAN STATE
SPARTANSMSU
25-5 | Road
80
MICHIGAN
WOLVERINESMICH
28-2 | Home
90
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
0%
WOLVERINES
100%
SPARTANS
--
WOLVERINES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Michigan State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MSU -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSU)
MSU By 1-7 points
18.6%
MSU By 8-14 points
26.8%
MICH By 1-7 points
6.8%
MICH By 8-14 points
1.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Michigan State
81
MICHIGAN STATE
Michigan
68
MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
Michigan State
68
MICHIGAN STATE
Michigan
72
MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Spartans
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wolverines
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Spartans (-10.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Wolverines (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u152.5
Loss
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim
u152.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
MSU @ MICH
80 - 90
Jan 30, 2026
MICH @ MSU
83 - 71
Mar 9, 2025
MICH @ MSU
62 - 79
Feb 21, 2025
MSU @ MICH
75 - 62
Feb 17, 2024
MSU @ MICH
73 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+32.1% more
Michigan: 4.9
vs
Michigan State: 3.7
Turnovers (L5)
+19.8% more
Michigan: 13.3
vs
Michigan State: 11.1
Blocks (L5)
+16.2% more
Michigan: 4.7
vs
Michigan State: 4.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.8%
Michigan: 41.8%
vs
Michigan State: 37.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MSU Score
81.0
80
MICH Score
68.0
90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.8 / 37.0
45.0 / 33.0
Assists
16.5 / 17.3
12.0 / 16.0
Blocks
4.7 / 4.1
7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
51.2 / 51.1
49.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
80.7 / 80.6
90.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
36.4 / 36.2
35.0 / 32.0
Steals
4.9 / 3.7
2.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
13.3 / 11.1
10.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSU
27-8-0
(77.1%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +1.5
MICH
Advantage
37-3-0
(92.5%)
Margin: 17.8
ATS +/-: +3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSU
Advantage
17-16-2
(51.5%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +1.5
MICH
19-21-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 17.8
ATS +/-: +3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MSU
16-19-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +1.5
MICH
17-23-0
O: 42.5% / U: 57.5%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MICH
MSU
MICH
MSU
ML
78%
31-9
71%
25-10
63%
24-14
61%
20-13
ATS
78%
31-9
71%
25-10
63%
24-14
61%
20-13
TTL
57%
23-17
49%
17-18
100%
38-0
100%
33-0
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