PORTLAND
PILOTSPORT
15-18 | Road
65
SAN FRANCISCO
DONSSF
16-15 | Home
82
AI Model Win Probability
PILOTS
0%
DONS
100%
PILOTS
--
DONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
169.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+7.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SF +7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)
PORT By 1-7 points
26.2%
PORT By 8-14 points
25.3%
SF By 1-7 points
15.3%
SF By 8-14 points
5.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Portland
88
PORTLAND
San Francisco
81
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
Portland
70
PORTLAND
San Francisco
78
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pilots
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Dons
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Dons (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +7.0
D
Sim
Dons (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o144.5
Win
Proj Total: 169.0
D
Sim
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
PORT @ SF
65 - 82
Jan 4, 2026
PORT @ SF
68 - 73
Jan 9, 2025
PORT @ SF
72 - 81
Mar 9, 2024
PORT @ SF
51 - 72
Jan 27, 2024
SF @ PORT
76 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+23.9% more
Portland: 16.2
vs
San Francisco: 12.3
Rebounding (L5)
+16.9% more
Portland: 34.9
vs
San Francisco: 29.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.4%
Portland: 76.7%
vs
San Francisco: 68.4%
Steals (L5)
+16.0% more
San Francisco: 5.4
vs
Portland: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PORT Score
88.0
65
SF Score
81.0
82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.3 / 31.5
29.0 / 22.0
Assists
12.3 / 16.2
17.0 / 11.0
Blocks
3.5 / 3.6
3.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
45.7 / 46.8
43.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
68.4 / 76.7
68.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
29.0 / 34.9
39.0 / 35.0
Steals
5.4 / 4.6
6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
11.5 / 12.2
7.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PORT
15-19-0
(44.1%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.2
SF
Advantage
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: 1.5
ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PORT
Advantage
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.2
SF
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 1.5
ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
PORT
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -1.0
SF
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9%
Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
PORT
SF
PORT
ML
39%
13-20
48%
16-17
64%
21-12
82%
27-6
ATS
42%
14-19
67%
22-11
64%
21-12
82%
28-6
TTL
73%
24-9
55%
18-15
100%
33-0
100%
34-0
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