Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Golden Eagles @ Mountaineers USM @ APP

SOUTHERN MISS

GOLDEN EAGLESUSM

18-15  |  Road

86
FINAL
Sat, Mar 7 • 6:30 PM ET
Pensacola Bay Center
View Odds Details →

APP STATE

MOUNTAINEERSAPP

19-12  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN EAGLES
0%
📊
MOUNTAINEERS
100%
GOLDEN EAGLES --
MOUNTAINEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
SOUTHERN MISS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Southern Miss)
Golden EaglesUSM (-3.5) 0 MountaineersAPP (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Eagles Cover

69.1%

Mountaineers Cover

30.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around USM -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USM)

USM By 1-7 points

27.2%

USM By 8-14 points

23.0%

APP By 1-7 points

18.6%

APP By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
82
SOUTHERN MISS
77
APP STATE
Simulated Score
68
SOUTHERN MISS
72
APP STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Golden Eagles Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mountaineers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Golden Eagles (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Mountaineers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o137.5 Win
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim u137.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 USM @ APP 86 - 73
Jan 29, 2026 APP @ USM 70 - 63
Feb 5, 2025 USM @ APP 58 - 60
Dec 31, 2022 APP @ USM 70 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +27.3% more
Southern Miss: 6.6 vs App State: 4.8
Blocks (L5) +16.6% more
Southern Miss: 3.7 vs App State: 3.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +10.3%
Southern Miss: 36.7% vs App State: 26.3%
Free Throw % (L5) +9.7%
Southern Miss: 74.9% vs App State: 65.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USM Score 82.0 86
APP Score 77.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 26.3 / 36.7 24.0 / 38.0
Assists 10.3 / 10.6 7.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.1 / 3.7 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 42.5 / 48.5 42.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 65.2 / 74.9 76.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 39.3 / 34.2 32.0 / 42.0
Steals 4.8 / 6.6 6.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 10.8 / 11.8 10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USM
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
APP Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USM
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
APP Advantage
16-13-1 (55.2%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
USM
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +3.2
APP
12-18-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
APP
USM
APP
USM
ML
62% 20-12
53% 18-16
59% 19-13
73% 24-9
ATS
59% 19-13
59% 20-14
59% 19-13
74% 25-9
TTL
69% 22-10
68% 23-11
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
UConn Men's Basketball 2026-27 TV Schedule Revealed: Up to Seven…
courant 1 day, 5 hours ago
Melvin Council Jr. Wins Eligibility Appeal, Returns to Kansas fo…
kwch 3 days, 23 hours ago
Kentucky Fans Weigh In on Senate Bill That Could Transform Colle…
wkyt 5 days ago
Kentucky Appeals Court Ruling Shakes Up Eligibility for Mark Mit…
cbssports 5 days, 23 hours ago
Houston Cougars Set for Nationally Televised Road Battle at Kans…
headtopics 1 week ago