UNC ASHEVILLE
BULLDOGSUNCA
15-16 | Road
71
HIGH POINT
PANTHERSHPU
28-4 | Home
75
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
PANTHERS
0%
BULLDOGS
--
PANTHERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
HIGH POINT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (High Point)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HPU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HPU)
UNCA By 1-7 points
24.3%
UNCA By 8-14 points
13.7%
HPU By 1-7 points
26.2%
HPU By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
UNC Asheville
72
UNC ASHEVILLE
High Point
73
HIGH POINT
Simulated Score
UNC Asheville
73
UNC ASHEVILLE
High Point
78
HIGH POINT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Panthers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Panthers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Panthers (+14.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Panthers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
UNCA @ HPU
71 - 75
Feb 19, 2026
UNCA @ HPU
48 - 74
Dec 31, 2025
HPU @ UNCA
87 - 69
Feb 8, 2025
UNCA @ HPU
100 - 104
Jan 4, 2025
HPU @ UNCA
99 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+91.1% more
High Point: 8.6
vs
UNC Asheville: 4.5
Assists (L5)
+50.1% more
High Point: 15.0
vs
UNC Asheville: 10.0
Blocks (L5)
+22.4% more
High Point: 5.1
vs
UNC Asheville: 4.2
Rebounding (L5)
+21.3% more
High Point: 39.6
vs
UNC Asheville: 32.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UNCA Score
72.0
71
HPU Score
73.0
75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.5 / 32.3
30.0 / 28.0
Assists
15.0 / 10.0
11.0 / 8.0
Blocks
5.1 / 4.2
1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
44.9 / 45.6
46.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
72.0 / 62.9
63.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
39.6 / 32.6
33.0 / 40.0
Steals
8.6 / 4.5
9.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
10.4 / 10.9
9.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNCA
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -0.2
HPU
Advantage
31-5-0
(86.1%)
Margin: 18.5
ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNCA
15-14-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -0.2
HPU
Advantage
17-15-1
(53.1%)
Margin: 18.5
ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UNCA
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: -2.8
HPU
22-11-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HPU
UNCA
HPU
UNCA
ML
80%
28-7
53%
16-14
80%
28-7
63%
19-11
ATS
71%
25-10
57%
17-13
80%
28-7
63%
19-11
TTL
66%
23-12
60%
18-12
100%
35-0
100%
30-0
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