Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Catamounts @ Bears WCU @ MER

WESTERN CAROLINA

CATAMOUNTSWCU

14-15  |  Road

77
FINAL
Sat, Mar 7 • 8:30 PM ET
Harrah's Cherokee Center
View Odds Details →

MERCER

BEARSMER

19-12  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
CATAMOUNTS
100%
📊
BEARS
0%
CATAMOUNTS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
150.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
MERCER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Mercer)
CatamountsWCU (-3.5) 0 BearsMER (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Catamounts Cover

11.5%

Bears Cover

88.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MER -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MER)

WCU By 1-7 points

8.0%

WCU By 8-14 points

2.2%

MER By 1-7 points

20.1%

MER By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
69
WESTERN CAROLINA
81
MERCER
Simulated Score
68
WESTERN CAROLINA
72
MERCER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bears Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bears (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Sim u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 WCU @ MER 77 - 73
Feb 25, 2026 MER @ WCU 74 - 78
Jan 21, 2026 WCU @ MER 76 - 88
Mar 7, 2025 WCU @ MER 66 - 67
Mar 1, 2025 WCU @ MER 69 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +58.4% more
Mercer: 3.2 vs Western Carolina: 2.0
Turnovers (L5) +38.7% more
Mercer: 10.1 vs Western Carolina: 7.3
Steals (L5) +16.2% more
Mercer: 5.5 vs Western Carolina: 4.7
Field Goal % (L5) +3.9%
Mercer: 51.5% vs Western Carolina: 47.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WCU Score 69.0 77
MER Score 81.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.4 / 35.8 38.0 / 29.0
Assists 11.5 / 11.5 10.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.2 / 2.0 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 51.5 / 47.7 42.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 68.5 / 74.3 58.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 31.5 / 37.0 29.0 / 53.0
Steals 5.5 / 4.7 8.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 10.1 / 7.3 5.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WCU
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +1.8
MER Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WCU
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +1.8
MER Advantage
19-10-0 (65.5%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
WCU
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: +2.5
MER
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MER
WCU
MER
WCU
ML
55% 17-14
63% 19-11
71% 22-9
76% 22-7
ATS
58% 18-13
73% 22-8
71% 22-9
77% 23-7
TTL
61% 19-12
67% 20-10
100% 31-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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