FURMAN
PALADINSFUR
19-12 | Road
86
SAMFORD
BULLDOGSSAM
18-13 | Home
81
AI Model Win Probability
PALADINS
0%
BULLDOGS
100%
PALADINS
--
BULLDOGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
FURMAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Furman)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around FUR -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FUR)
FUR By 1-7 points
26.8%
FUR By 8-14 points
24.3%
SAM By 1-7 points
16.9%
SAM By 8-14 points
6.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Furman
74
FURMAN
Samford
68
SAMFORD
Simulated Score
Furman
75
FURMAN
Samford
78
SAMFORD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Paladins
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulldogs
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Paladins (-1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Bulldogs (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u146.5
Loss
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
FUR @ SAM
86 - 81
Jan 29, 2026
SAM @ FUR
73 - 78
Jan 14, 2026
FUR @ SAM
77 - 73
Mar 8, 2025
FUR @ SAM
95 - 78
Feb 19, 2025
FUR @ SAM
80 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+55.3% more
Furman: 3.7
vs
Samford: 1.7
Steals (L5)
+84.1% more
Samford: 4.3
vs
Furman: 2.3
Assists (L5)
+24.2% more
Samford: 15.7
vs
Furman: 12.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+14.9%
Samford: 72.9%
vs
Furman: 58.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
FUR Score
74.0
86
SAM Score
68.0
81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
42.5 / 32.5
45.0 / 52.0
Assists
15.7 / 12.7
11.0 / 11.0
Blocks
1.7 / 3.7
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
49.5 / 48.5
49.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
72.9 / 58.0
74.0 / 81.0
Rebounding
37.1 / 36.3
31.0 / 36.0
Steals
4.3 / 2.3
5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
10.9 / 10.2
11.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FUR
Advantage
22-13-0
(62.9%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: -0.3
SAM
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 3.6
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FUR
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: -0.3
SAM
Advantage
17-12-1
(58.6%)
Margin: 3.6
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
FUR
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6%
Total +/-: -0.9
SAM
18-11-1
O: 62.1% / U: 37.9%
Total +/-: +2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAM
FUR
SAM
FUR
ML
65%
20-11
71%
25-10
68%
21-10
62%
21-13
ATS
68%
21-10
63%
22-13
68%
21-10
62%
21-13
TTL
35%
11-20
57%
20-15
100%
31-0
100%
34-0
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