AIR FORCE
FALCONSAF
3-27 | Road
59
NEVADA
WOLF PACKNEV
19-11 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
FALCONS
100%
WOLF PACK
0%
FALCONS
--
WOLF PACK
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
179.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
NEVADA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Nevada)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NEV -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NEV)
AF By 1-7 points
3.3%
AF By 8-14 points
0.6%
NEV By 1-7 points
12.2%
NEV By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Air Force
81
AIR FORCE
Nevada
98
NEVADA
Simulated Score
Air Force
60
AIR FORCE
Nevada
75
NEVADA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Wolf Pack
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wolf Pack
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Wolf Pack (+25.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim
Wolf Pack (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o145.5
Loss
Proj Total: 179.0
D
Sim
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 11, 2026
AF @ NEV
45 - 80
Mar 7, 2026
AF @ NEV
59 - 74
Jan 17, 2026
NEV @ AF
81 - 66
Feb 4, 2025
NEV @ AF
74 - 60
Jan 14, 2025
AF @ NEV
62 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+74.3% more
Nevada: 2.9
vs
Air Force: 1.7
Steals (L5)
+37.4% more
Nevada: 5.8
vs
Air Force: 4.3
Rebounding (L5)
+17.1% more
Nevada: 34.3
vs
Air Force: 29.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.7%
Nevada: 70.8%
vs
Air Force: 62.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
AF Score
81.0
59
NEV Score
98.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.1 / 33.1
22.0 / 17.0
Assists
12.5 / 13.8
15.0 / 5.0
Blocks
2.9 / 1.7
5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
43.9 / 44.6
48.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
70.8 / 62.1
80.0 / 41.0
Rebounding
34.3 / 29.3
41.0 / 22.0
Steals
5.8 / 4.3
5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
10.6 / 13.6
10.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AF
3-29-0
(9.4%)
Margin: -18.3
ATS +/-: -4.9
NEV
Advantage
24-13-0
(64.9%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AF
10-21-1
(32.3%)
Margin: -18.3
ATS +/-: -4.9
NEV
Advantage
22-15-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
AF
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
NEV
21-16-0
O: 56.8% / U: 43.2%
Total +/-: +2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NEV
AF
NEV
AF
ML
62%
23-14
81%
26-6
73%
27-10
62%
20-12
ATS
73%
27-10
69%
22-10
73%
27-10
62%
20-12
TTL
49%
18-19
69%
22-10
100%
37-0
100%
32-0
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