Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Wildcats @ Golden Gophers NU @ MINN

NORTHWESTERN

WILDCATSNU

13-17  |  Road

66
FINAL
Sat, Mar 7 • 9:00 PM ET
Williams Arena
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

GOLDEN GOPHERSMINN

14-16  |  Home

67
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
100%
📊
GOLDEN GOPHERS
0%
WILDCATS --
GOLDEN GOPHERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
125.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Minnesota)
WildcatsNU (-3.5) 0 Golden GophersMINN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wildcats Cover

30.9%

Golden Gophers Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MINN -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MINN)

NU By 1-7 points

18.6%

NU By 8-14 points

8.0%

MINN By 1-7 points

27.2%

MINN By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
60
NORTHWESTERN
65
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
70
NORTHWESTERN
75
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Golden Gophers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Gophers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Golden Gophers (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Golden Gophers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u131.5 Loss
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Sim u131.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 NU @ MINN 66 - 67
Jan 3, 2026 MINN @ NU 84 - 78
Mar 12, 2025 NU @ MINN 72 - 64
Feb 25, 2025 NU @ MINN 75 - 63
Mar 9, 2024 MINN @ NU 66 - 90
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +48.3% more
Northwestern: 4.1 vs Minnesota: 2.1
Steals (L5) +36.9% more
Northwestern: 7.8 vs Minnesota: 4.9
Free Throw % (L5) +4.0%
Northwestern: 79.5% vs Minnesota: 75.4%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.3%
Northwestern: 46.9% vs Minnesota: 44.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NU Score 60.0 66
MINN Score 65.0 67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.0 / 38.3 35.0 / 35.0
Assists 14.7 / 15.3 16.0 / 18.0
Blocks 2.1 / 4.1 0.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 44.7 / 46.9 55.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 75.4 / 79.5 81.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 24.0 / 24.8 26.0 / 28.0
Steals 4.9 / 7.8 6.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 8.7 / 9.2 11.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
49%MONEY51%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NU
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
MINN Advantage
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NU Advantage
16-16-2 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
MINN
14-18-1 (43.8%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NU
15-18-1
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.0
MINN
13-20-0
O: 39.4% / U: 60.6% Total +/-: -3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MINN
NU
MINN
NU
ML
48% 16-17
47% 16-18
71% 22-9
68% 23-11
ATS
55% 18-15
50% 17-17
71% 22-9
68% 23-11
TTL
52% 17-16
53% 18-16
100% 31-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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