Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Lopes FRES @ GCU

FRESNO STATE

BULLDOGSFRES

13-17  |  Road

60
FINAL
Sat, Mar 7 • 8:00 PM ET
Global Credit Union Arena
View Odds Details →

GRAND CANYON

LOPESGCU

19-11  |  Home

85
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
0%
📊
LOPES
100%
BULLDOGS --
LOPES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
GRAND CANYON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
BulldogsFRES (-3.5) 0 LopesGCU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

46.0%

Lopes Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GCU +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GCU)

FRES By 1-7 points

26.2%

FRES By 8-14 points

16.9%

GCU By 1-7 points

24.3%

GCU By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
75
FRESNO STATE
74
GRAND CANYON
Simulated Score
67
FRESNO STATE
78
GRAND CANYON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lopes Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lopes (+13.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Lopes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o146.5 Loss
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 FRES @ GCU 60 - 85
Jan 24, 2026 GCU @ FRES 68 - 57
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +42.8% more
Grand Canyon: 12.3 vs Fresno State: 8.6
Blocks (L5) +22.7% more
Grand Canyon: 3.8 vs Fresno State: 3.1
Assists (L5) +22.5% more
Grand Canyon: 13.7 vs Fresno State: 11.1
Free Throw % (L5) +5.5%
Grand Canyon: 77.6% vs Fresno State: 72.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FRES Score 75.0 60
GCU Score 74.0 85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.1 / 35.1 38.0 / 22.0
Assists 13.7 / 11.1 23.0 / 7.0
Blocks 3.8 / 3.1 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 49.9 / 44.4 49.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 77.6 / 72.0 91.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 35.8 / 36.0 39.0 / 29.0
Steals 3.9 / 4.3 13.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 12.3 / 8.6 10.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
31%MONEY69%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FRES
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
GCU Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FRES Advantage
21-10-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
GCU
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
FRES
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -4.3
GCU
13-18-1
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GCU
FRES
GCU
FRES
ML
66% 21-11
59% 19-13
68% 21-10
74% 23-8
ATS
72% 23-9
75% 24-8
68% 21-10
74% 23-8
TTL
44% 14-18
56% 18-14
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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