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UT ARLINGTON

MAVERICKSUTA

16-13  |  Road

64
FINAL
Sat, Mar 7 • 7:00 PM ET
Moody Coliseum (Abilene)
View Odds Details →

ABILENE CHRISTIAN

WILDCATSACU

13-17  |  Home

57
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
0%
📊
WILDCATS
100%
MAVERICKS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
UT ARLINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (UT Arlington)
MavericksUTA (-3.5) 0 WildcatsACU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

81.6%

Wildcats Cover

18.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UTA -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTA)

UTA By 1-7 points

24.3%

UTA By 8-14 points

26.8%

ACU By 1-7 points

12.2%

ACU By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
76
UT ARLINGTON
67
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
Simulated Score
68
UT ARLINGTON
72
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mavericks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mavericks (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o132.5 Loss
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim u132.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 UTA @ ACU 64 - 57
Feb 12, 2026 UTA @ ACU 63 - 67
Jan 10, 2026 ACU @ UTA 72 - 82
Mar 1, 2025 ACU @ UTA 70 - 59
Jan 25, 2025 UTA @ ACU 79 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +60.4% more
UT Arlington: 3.7 vs Abilene Christian: 1.5
Rebounding (L5) +15.3% more
UT Arlington: 34.6 vs Abilene Christian: 29.3
Free Throw % (L5) +2.7%
UT Arlington: 72.0% vs Abilene Christian: 69.3%
Steals (L5) +57.6% more
Abilene Christian: 9.8 vs UT Arlington: 6.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTA Score 76.0 64
ACU Score 67.0 57
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.5 / 23.3 12.0 / 57.0
Assists 10.4 / 8.6 9.0 / 6.0
Blocks 1.5 / 3.7 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 39.9 / 40.2 40.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 69.3 / 72.0 76.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 29.3 / 34.6 27.0 / 38.0
Steals 9.8 / 6.2 9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 16.6 / 13.0 9.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
67%MONEY33%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
19%MONEY81%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTA Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
ACU
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: -2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTA Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
ACU
13-16-1 (44.8%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: -2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
UTA
7-23-0
O: 23.3% / U: 76.7% Total +/-: -4.7
ACU
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ACU
UTA
ACU
UTA
ML
67% 22-11
50% 16-16
70% 23-10
62% 20-12
ATS
55% 18-15
59% 19-13
70% 23-10
62% 20-12
TTL
58% 19-14
53% 17-15
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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