Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mavericks @ Bison OMA @ NDSU

OMAHA

MAVERICKSOMA

16-16  |  Road

50
FINAL
Sat, Mar 7 • 8:00 PM ET
Denny Sanford Premier Center
View Odds Details →

NORTH DAKOTA STATE

BISONNDSU

25-7  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
📊
BISON
0%
MAVERICKS --
BISON --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (North Dakota State)
MavericksOMA (-3.5) 0 BisonNDSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

9.7%

Bison Cover

90.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NDSU -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NDSU)

OMA By 1-7 points

6.8%

OMA By 8-14 points

1.7%

NDSU By 1-7 points

18.6%

NDSU By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
73
OMAHA
86
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Simulated Score
70
OMAHA
75
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bison Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bison Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bison (-8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Bison (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o142.5 Loss
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 OMA @ NDSU 50 - 74
Feb 7, 2026 OMA @ NDSU 84 - 92
Jan 10, 2026 NDSU @ OMA 78 - 76
Feb 8, 2025 NDSU @ OMA 74 - 85
Jan 4, 2025 OMA @ NDSU 85 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +98.0% more
North Dakota State: 7.9 vs Omaha: 4.0
Assists (L5) +77.2% more
North Dakota State: 17.4 vs Omaha: 9.8
Turnovers (L5) +28.7% more
North Dakota State: 10.1 vs Omaha: 7.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.2%
North Dakota State: 37.6% vs Omaha: 32.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OMA Score 73.0 50
NDSU Score 86.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.6 / 32.4 28.0 / 15.0
Assists 17.4 / 9.8 14.0 / 9.0
Blocks 2.1 / 4.3 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.0 / 44.0 44.0 / 30.0
Free Throw % 74.6 / 75.6 67.0 / 89.0
Rebounding 37.2 / 35.2 43.0 / 28.0
Steals 7.9 / 4.0 7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.1 / 7.8 9.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OMA
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +0.1
NDSU Advantage
27-8-0 (77.1%)
Margin: 10.1 ATS +/-: +4.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OMA
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +0.1
NDSU Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 10.1 ATS +/-: +4.5
⚖️ Over/Under
OMA
14-14-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.6
NDSU
18-13-2
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9% Total +/-: +2.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NDSU
OMA
NDSU
OMA
ML
49% 17-18
79% 26-7
59% 20-14
67% 22-11
ATS
54% 19-16
76% 25-8
59% 20-14
67% 22-11
TTL
43% 15-20
73% 24-9
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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