UALBANY
GREAT DANESUALB
11-20 | Road
76
UMASS LOWELL
RIVER HAWKSUML
14-17 | Home
81
AI Model Win Probability
GREAT DANES
0%
RIVER HAWKS
100%
GREAT DANES
--
RIVER HAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
UMASS LOWELL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UML +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UML)
UALB By 1-7 points
26.2%
UALB By 8-14 points
16.9%
UML By 1-7 points
24.3%
UML By 8-14 points
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
UAlbany
68
UALBANY
UMass Lowell
67
UMASS LOWELL
Simulated Score
UAlbany
68
UALBANY
UMass Lowell
75
UMASS LOWELL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Great Danes
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
River Hawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
River Hawks (+2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim
River Hawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u147.5
Loss
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
UALB @ UML
76 - 81
Feb 7, 2026
UML @ UALB
89 - 79
Jan 3, 2026
UALB @ UML
71 - 83
Feb 13, 2025
UALB @ UML
90 - 88
Jan 4, 2025
UML @ UALB
73 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+45.5% more
UAlbany: 3.5
vs
UMass Lowell: 1.9
Turnovers (L5)
+36.0% more
UAlbany: 13.0
vs
UMass Lowell: 8.3
Steals (L5)
+20.8% more
UAlbany: 5.2
vs
UMass Lowell: 4.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+11.8%
UAlbany: 34.8%
vs
UMass Lowell: 23.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UALB Score
68.0
76
UML Score
67.0
81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
23.0 / 34.8
43.0 / 38.0
Assists
13.1 / 13.3
19.0 / 12.0
Blocks
1.9 / 3.5
4.0 / 9.0
Field Goal %
43.7 / 48.1
47.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
61.4 / 69.2
78.0 / 40.0
Rebounding
38.3 / 33.8
36.0 / 38.0
Steals
4.1 / 5.2
8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
8.3 / 13.0
11.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UALB
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
UML
Advantage
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: -1.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UALB
11-18-0
(37.9%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
UML
Advantage
16-14-0
(53.3%)
Margin: -1.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UALB
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +0.3
UML
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UML
UALB
UML
UALB
ML
70%
23-10
55%
17-14
58%
19-14
71%
22-9
ATS
70%
23-10
77%
24-7
58%
19-14
72%
23-9
TTL
58%
19-14
61%
19-12
100%
33-0
100%
32-0
