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DAVIDSON

WILDCATSDAV

18-12  |  Road

68
FINAL
Sat, Mar 7 • 12:00 PM ET
Reilly Center
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ST. BONAVENTURE

BONNIESSBU

15-15  |  Home

63
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
0%
📊
BONNIES
100%
WILDCATS --
BONNIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
DAVIDSON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Davidson)
WildcatsDAV (-3.5) 0 BonniesSBU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wildcats Cover

84.1%

Bonnies Cover

15.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DAV -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAV)

DAV By 1-7 points

23.0%

DAV By 8-14 points

27.2%

SBU By 1-7 points

10.7%

SBU By 8-14 points

3.3%

AI Model Projected Score
82
DAVIDSON
72
ST. BONAVENTURE
Simulated Score
72
DAVIDSON
78
ST. BONAVENTURE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Wildcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bonnies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wildcats (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Bonnies (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o141.5 Loss
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim u141.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 DAV @ SBU 68 - 63
Mar 8, 2025 SBU @ DAV 64 - 61
Feb 17, 2024 DAV @ SBU 80 - 81
Mar 8, 2023 SBU @ DAV 54 - 65
Feb 22, 2023 SBU @ DAV 61 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +44.2% more
St. Bonaventure: 8.5 vs Davidson: 5.9
Turnovers (L5) +34.6% more
St. Bonaventure: 12.1 vs Davidson: 9.0
Rebounding (L5) +16.6% more
St. Bonaventure: 39.3 vs Davidson: 33.7
Assists (L5) +16.3% more
St. Bonaventure: 15.5 vs Davidson: 13.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAV Score 82.0 68
SBU Score 72.0 63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.9 / 34.1 28.0 / 24.0
Assists 15.5 / 13.4 13.0 / 13.0
Blocks 5.0 / 4.6 0.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.4 / 44.1 37.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 68.5 / 57.0 78.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 39.3 / 33.7 39.0 / 35.0
Steals 8.5 / 5.9 4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 12.1 / 9.0 11.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
48%MONEY52%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
67%MONEY33%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
35%MONEY65%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAV Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 4.1 ATS +/-: +0.9
SBU
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAV Advantage
13-17-2 (43.3%)
Margin: 4.1 ATS +/-: +0.9
SBU
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DAV
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -2.6
SBU
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +5.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SBU
DAV
SBU
DAV
ML
59% 20-14
64% 21-12
61% 20-13
58% 19-14
ATS
50% 17-17
48% 16-17
61% 20-13
58% 19-14
TTL
38% 13-21
52% 17-16
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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