UC DAVIS
AGGIESUCD
18-12 | Road
69
UC IRVINE
ANTEATERSUCI
21-10 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
100%
ANTEATERS
0%
AGGIES
--
ANTEATERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
UC IRVINE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (UC Irvine)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCI)
UCD By 1-7 points
24.3%
UCD By 8-14 points
13.7%
UCI By 1-7 points
26.2%
UCI By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
UC Davis
78
UC DAVIS
UC Irvine
79
UC IRVINE
Simulated Score
UC Davis
68
UC DAVIS
UC Irvine
74
UC IRVINE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Anteaters
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Anteaters
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Anteaters (+9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Anteaters (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o145.5
Win
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
UCD @ UCI
69 - 79
Jan 17, 2026
UCI @ UCD
72 - 75
Mar 6, 2025
UCI @ UCD
88 - 59
Feb 1, 2025
UCD @ UCI
66 - 73
Jan 20, 2024
UCI @ UCD
52 - 54
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+71.8% more
UC Irvine: 5.6
vs
UC Davis: 3.3
Assists (L5)
+36.8% more
UC Irvine: 17.7
vs
UC Davis: 13.0
Steals (L5)
+28.9% more
UC Irvine: 9.2
vs
UC Davis: 7.2
Rebounding (L5)
+10.6% more
UC Irvine: 38.4
vs
UC Davis: 34.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCD Score
78.0
69
UCI Score
79.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.0 / 28.9
43.0 / 36.0
Assists
17.7 / 13.0
12.0 / 16.0
Blocks
5.6 / 3.3
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
48.4 / 42.1
51.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
71.5 / 75.5
70.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
38.4 / 34.7
48.0 / 24.0
Steals
9.2 / 7.2
6.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
9.9 / 13.7
19.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCD
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +0.8
UCI
Advantage
23-12-0
(65.7%)
Margin: 8.6
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCD
Advantage
17-14-1
(54.8%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +0.8
UCI
16-16-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 8.6
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UCD
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8%
Total +/-: +1.6
UCI
12-21-0
O: 36.4% / U: 63.6%
Total +/-: -2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCI
UCD
UCI
UCD
ML
57%
20-15
58%
19-14
53%
18-16
64%
21-12
ATS
63%
22-13
61%
20-13
53%
18-16
64%
21-12
TTL
57%
20-15
61%
20-13
100%
34-0
100%
33-0
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