KENNESAW STATE
OWLSKENN
18-12 | Road
76
NEW MEXICO STATE
AGGIESNMSU
14-15 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
OWLS
100%
AGGIES
0%
OWLS
--
AGGIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
NEW MEXICO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (New Mexico State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NMSU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NMSU)
KENN By 1-7 points
21.6%
KENN By 8-14 points
10.7%
NMSU By 1-7 points
27.2%
NMSU By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Kennesaw State
72
KENNESAW STATE
New Mexico State
75
NEW MEXICO STATE
Simulated Score
Kennesaw State
70
KENNESAW STATE
New Mexico State
75
NEW MEXICO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Aggies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Aggies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Aggies (-2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Aggies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u154.5
Loss
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
KENN @ NMSU
76 - 79
Jan 31, 2026
NMSU @ KENN
53 - 76
Mar 13, 2025
NMSU @ KENN
77 - 80
Feb 22, 2025
NMSU @ KENN
60 - 49
Jan 23, 2025
KENN @ NMSU
69 - 56
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.8%
New Mexico State: 72.6%
vs
Kennesaw State: 66.7%
Blocks (L5)
+30.8% more
Kennesaw State: 4.7
vs
New Mexico State: 3.3
Turnovers (L5)
+24.3% more
Kennesaw State: 11.9
vs
New Mexico State: 9.0
Assists (L5)
+14.1% more
Kennesaw State: 14.0
vs
New Mexico State: 12.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KENN Score
72.0
76
NMSU Score
75.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
27.7 / 33.5
23.0 / 36.0
Assists
12.0 / 14.0
13.0 / 12.0
Blocks
3.3 / 4.7
1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
40.5 / 44.0
43.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
72.6 / 66.7
83.0 / 69.0
Rebounding
39.5 / 38.1
43.0 / 29.0
Steals
5.4 / 5.9
5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
9.0 / 11.9
10.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KENN
Advantage
21-14-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 6.8
ATS +/-: +0.8
NMSU
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 3.1
ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KENN
Advantage
15-16-1
(48.4%)
Margin: 6.8
ATS +/-: +0.8
NMSU
14-15-0
(48.3%)
Margin: 3.1
ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
KENN
14-17-1
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: +0.8
NMSU
17-11-1
O: 60.7% / U: 39.3%
Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NMSU
KENN
NMSU
KENN
ML
61%
19-12
74%
25-9
67%
20-10
72%
23-9
ATS
65%
20-11
71%
24-10
67%
20-10
73%
24-9
TTL
45%
14-17
56%
19-15
100%
30-0
100%
33-0
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