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NOTRE DAME

FIGHTING IRISHND

13-17  |  Road

69
FINAL
Sat, Mar 7 • 12:00 PM ET
Conte Forum
View Odds Details →

BOSTON COLLEGE

EAGLESBC

10-20  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
FIGHTING IRISH
0%
📊
EAGLES
100%
FIGHTING IRISH --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
NOTRE DAME
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Notre Dame)
Fighting IrishND (-3.5) 0 EaglesBC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Fighting Irish Cover

81.6%

Eagles Cover

18.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ND -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ND)

ND By 1-7 points

24.3%

ND By 8-14 points

26.8%

BC By 1-7 points

12.2%

BC By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
72
NOTRE DAME
63
BOSTON COLLEGE
Simulated Score
69
NOTRE DAME
72
BOSTON COLLEGE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Fighting Irish Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Fighting Irish (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u142.5 Loss
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 ND @ BC 69 - 77
Jan 24, 2026 BC @ ND 64 - 68
Feb 12, 2025 ND @ BC 97 - 94
Jan 13, 2025 BC @ ND 60 - 78
Jan 27, 2024 BC @ ND 61 - 58
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +15.8%
Notre Dame: 74.5% vs Boston College: 58.7%
Assists (L5) +13.3% more
Notre Dame: 12.5 vs Boston College: 10.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +12.3%
Notre Dame: 38.9% vs Boston College: 26.6%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.5%
Notre Dame: 44.9% vs Boston College: 41.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ND Score 72.0 69
BC Score 63.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 26.6 / 38.9 21.0 / 31.0
Assists 10.8 / 12.5 10.0 / 10.0
Blocks 2.2 / 1.8 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 41.4 / 44.9 36.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 58.7 / 74.5 76.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 34.0 / 34.2 46.0 / 37.0
Steals 5.1 / 3.6 8.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 10.6 / 11.0 9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
76%MONEY24%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
83%MONEY17%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
26%MONEY74%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ND Advantage
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.9
BC
11-20-0 (35.5%)
Margin: -3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ND
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.9
BC
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: -3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ND
22-9-0
O: 71.0% / U: 29.0% Total +/-: +5.0
BC
12-19-0
O: 38.7% / U: 61.3% Total +/-: -3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BC
ND
BC
ND
ML
61% 19-12
65% 20-11
61% 17-11
77% 24-7
ATS
73% 22-8-1
55% 17-14
61% 17-11
77% 24-7
TTL
61% 19-12
68% 21-10
100% 28-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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