Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Musketeers @ Wildcats XAV @ VILL

XAVIER

MUSKETEERSXAV

14-16  |  Road

78
FINAL
Sat, Mar 7 • 12:00 PM ET
Finneran Pavilion
View Odds Details →

VILLANOVA

WILDCATSVILL

23-7  |  Home

91
AI Model Win Probability
MUSKETEERS
0%
📊
WILDCATS
100%
MUSKETEERS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
VILLANOVA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
MusketeersXAV (-3.5) 0 WildcatsVILL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Musketeers Cover

34.5%

Wildcats Cover

65.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around VILL +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VILL)

XAV By 1-7 points

27.4%

XAV By 8-14 points

21.6%

VILL By 1-7 points

20.1%

VILL By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
71
XAVIER
67
VILLANOVA
Simulated Score
65
XAVIER
78
VILLANOVA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Musketeers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wildcats (+11.5) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u153.5 Loss
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 XAV @ VILL 78 - 91
Feb 17, 2026 VILL @ XAV 92 - 89
Feb 9, 2025 XAV @ VILL 68 - 80
Jan 14, 2025 VILL @ XAV 63 - 69
Feb 7, 2024 VILL @ XAV 53 - 56
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +34.9% more
Xavier: 4.3 vs Villanova: 2.8
Assists (L5) +12.3% more
Xavier: 16.5 vs Villanova: 14.4
Free Throw % (L5) +8.3%
Xavier: 76.8% vs Villanova: 68.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.6%
Xavier: 39.1% vs Villanova: 31.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
XAV Score 71.0 78
VILL Score 67.0 91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.5 / 39.1 42.0 / 38.0
Assists 14.4 / 16.5 24.0 / 18.0
Blocks 2.8 / 4.3 1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 43.6 / 46.3 56.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 68.5 / 76.8 89.0 / 100.0
Rebounding 31.2 / 32.6 39.0 / 28.0
Steals 8.5 / 5.6 2.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 9.7 12.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
XAV
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -1.2
VILL Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
XAV
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -1.2
VILL Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
XAV
25-8-0
O: 75.8% / U: 24.2% Total +/-: +6.0
VILL
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VILL
XAV
VILL
XAV
ML
44% 14-18
58% 19-14
72% 23-9
72% 23-9
ATS
56% 18-14
73% 24-9
72% 23-9
72% 23-9
TTL
41% 13-19
39% 13-20
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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