Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Blue Demons BUT @ DEP

BUTLER

BULLDOGSBUT

15-15  |  Road

81
FINAL
Sat, Mar 7 • 12:00 PM ET
Wintrust Arena
View Odds Details →

DEPAUL

BLUE DEMONSDEP

16-14  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
📊
BLUE DEMONS
0%
BULLDOGS --
BLUE DEMONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
DEPAUL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (DePaul)
BulldogsBUT (-3.5) 0 Blue DemonsDEP (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

46.0%

Blue Demons Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEP -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEP)

BUT By 1-7 points

24.3%

BUT By 8-14 points

13.7%

DEP By 1-7 points

26.2%

DEP By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
76
BUTLER
77
DEPAUL
Simulated Score
78
BUTLER
62
DEPAUL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Blue Demons Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Blue Demons (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o144.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 BUT @ DEP 81 - 71
Jan 20, 2026 DEP @ BUT 80 - 87
Feb 22, 2025 BUT @ DEP 84 - 72
Jan 25, 2025 DEP @ BUT 69 - 86
Mar 2, 2024 BUT @ DEP 82 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +42.7% more
DePaul: 7.0 vs Butler: 4.9
Turnovers (L5) +16.7% more
DePaul: 13.5 vs Butler: 11.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.7%
DePaul: 26.3% vs Butler: 24.6%
Blocks (L5) +30.3% more
Butler: 2.8 vs DePaul: 1.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUT Score 76.0 81
DEP Score 77.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 26.3 / 24.6 22.0 / 33.0
Assists 12.4 / 13.1 18.0 / 18.0
Blocks 1.9 / 2.8 5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 42.7 / 43.7 37.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 69.4 / 79.8 65.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 32.7 / 34.6 36.0 / 48.0
Steals 7.0 / 4.9 8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 13.5 / 11.6 11.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUT
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
DEP
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUT
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
DEP Advantage
18-12-2 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
BUT
17-14-1
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +2.0
DEP
11-21-0
O: 34.4% / U: 65.6% Total +/-: -5.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEP
BUT
DEP
BUT
ML
59% 19-13
62% 20-12
80% 24-6
65% 20-11
ATS
50% 16-16
56% 18-14
80% 24-6
65% 20-11
TTL
53% 17-15
50% 16-16
100% 30-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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