Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Utes @ Bears UTAH @ BAY

UTAH

UTESUTAH

10-20  |  Road

75
FINAL
Sat, Mar 7 • 5:00 PM ET
Foster Pavilion
View Odds Details →

BAYLOR

BEARSBAY

15-15  |  Home

101
AI Model Win Probability
UTES
100%
📊
BEARS
0%
UTES --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
137.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
BAYLOR
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Baylor)
UtesUTAH (-3.5) 0 BearsBAY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Utes Cover

38.2%

Bears Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BAY -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAY)

UTAH By 1-7 points

21.6%

UTAH By 8-14 points

10.7%

BAY By 1-7 points

27.2%

BAY By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
67
UTAH
70
BAYLOR
Simulated Score
70
UTAH
75
BAYLOR
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bears Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bears (+12.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u148.5 Loss
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 UTAH @ BAY 75 - 101
Jan 25, 2025 BAY @ UTAH 76 - 61
Dec 31, 2024 UTAH @ BAY 56 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +17.4% more
Baylor: 5.1 vs Utah: 4.3
Rebounding (L5) +14.2% more
Baylor: 34.0 vs Utah: 29.8
Assists (L5) +13.2% more
Baylor: 15.7 vs Utah: 13.9
Turnovers (L5) +10.8% more
Baylor: 12.5 vs Utah: 11.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTAH Score 67.0 75
BAY Score 70.0 101
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.1 / 34.8 44.0 / 50.0
Assists 15.7 / 13.9 22.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.1 / 3.7 0.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.8 / 45.6 62.0 / 60.0
Free Throw % 75.7 / 75.0 87.0 / 91.0
Rebounding 34.0 / 29.8 26.0 / 19.0
Steals 5.1 / 4.3 10.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 12.5 / 11.3 3.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTAH
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.8 ATS +/-: -0.6
BAY Advantage
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTAH Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -4.8 ATS +/-: -0.6
BAY
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UTAH
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: -0.5
BAY
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAY
UTAH
BAY
UTAH
ML
58% 19-14
56% 18-14
53% 17-15
67% 20-10
ATS
58% 19-14
56% 18-14
53% 17-15
67% 20-10
TTL
45% 15-18
41% 13-19
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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