Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lobos @ Aggies UNM @ USU

NEW MEXICO

LOBOSUNM

22-8  |  Road

90
FINAL
Sat, Mar 7 • 4:00 PM ET
Dee Glen Smith Spectrum
View Odds Details →

UTAH STATE

AGGIESUSU

24-6  |  Home

94
AI Model Win Probability
LOBOS
0%
📊
AGGIES
100%
LOBOS --
AGGIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
150.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
UTAH STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
LobosUNM (-3.5) 0 AggiesUSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lobos Cover

42.1%

Aggies Cover

57.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around USU +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USU)

UNM By 1-7 points

26.8%

UNM By 8-14 points

18.6%

USU By 1-7 points

23.0%

USU By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
76
NEW MEXICO
74
UTAH STATE
Simulated Score
70
NEW MEXICO
78
UTAH STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lobos Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aggies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Aggies (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim Aggies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u156.5 Loss
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Sim u156.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 UNM @ USU 90 - 94
Feb 4, 2026 USU @ UNM 86 - 66
Feb 16, 2025 USU @ UNM 79 - 82
Feb 1, 2025 UNM @ USU 82 - 63
Mar 9, 2024 UNM @ USU 85 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +25.9% more
New Mexico: 3.0 vs Utah State: 2.2
Steals (L5) +25.4% more
New Mexico: 9.3 vs Utah State: 6.9
Turnovers (L5) +13.6% more
New Mexico: 10.3 vs Utah State: 8.9
Rebounding (L5) +12.7% more
New Mexico: 34.1 vs Utah State: 29.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNM Score 76.0 90
USU Score 74.0 94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.6 / 32.8 37.0 / 45.0
Assists 16.0 / 12.6 17.0 / 17.0
Blocks 2.2 / 3.0 1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 43.8 / 44.7 50.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 66.6 / 65.9 83.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 29.7 / 34.1 30.0 / 35.0
Steals 6.9 / 9.3 5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 8.9 / 10.3 10.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
30%MONEY70%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNM
26-11-0 (70.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
USU Advantage
29-7-0 (80.6%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNM Advantage
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
USU
16-19-0 (45.7%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UNM
23-12-0
O: 65.7% / U: 34.3% Total +/-: +2.1
USU
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USU
UNM
USU
UNM
ML
49% 17-18
57% 21-16
66% 21-11
74% 25-9
ATS
74% 26-9
57% 21-16
67% 22-11
74% 25-9
TTL
51% 18-17
41% 15-22
100% 33-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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