CINCINNATI
BEARCATSCIN
17-13 | Road
63
TCU
HORNED FROGSTCU
20-10 | Home
73
AI Model Win Probability
BEARCATS
0%
HORNED FROGS
100%
BEARCATS
--
HORNED FROGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
131.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CIN -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
CIN By 1-7 points
27.2%
CIN By 8-14 points
20.1%
TCU By 1-7 points
21.6%
TCU By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
67
CINCINNATI
TCU
64
TCU
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
70
CINCINNATI
TCU
73
TCU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bearcats
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Horned Frogs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bearcats (-2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Horned Frogs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Sim
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
CIN @ TCU
63 - 73
Feb 22, 2025
TCU @ CIN
63 - 75
Feb 24, 2024
CIN @ TCU
57 - 75
Jan 16, 2024
TCU @ CIN
77 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+24.5% more
Cincinnati: 19.2
vs
TCU: 14.5
Blocks (L5)
+20.3% more
Cincinnati: 3.1
vs
TCU: 2.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.7%
Cincinnati: 40.1%
vs
TCU: 32.3%
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.2%
Cincinnati: 73.6%
vs
TCU: 68.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
67.0
63
TCU Score
64.0
73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.3 / 40.1
27.0 / 42.0
Assists
14.5 / 19.2
21.0 / 19.0
Blocks
2.5 / 3.1
1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
43.3 / 46.8
44.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
68.4 / 73.6
71.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
38.0 / 35.8
30.0 / 37.0
Steals
10.2 / 7.3
8.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
10.3 / 7.6
6.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: -0.2
TCU
Advantage
23-12-0
(65.7%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: -0.2
TCU
Advantage
19-16-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
12-21-0
O: 36.4% / U: 63.6%
Total +/-: -4.6
TCU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TCU
CIN
TCU
CIN
ML
74%
26-9
67%
22-11
63%
19-11
74%
23-8
ATS
74%
26-9
64%
21-12
63%
19-11
74%
23-8
TTL
66%
23-12
67%
22-11
100%
30-0
100%
31-0
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