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FLORIDA GULF COAST

EAGLESFGCU

16-17  |  Road

63
FINAL
Sat, Mar 7 • 5:00 PM ET
VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena
View Odds Details →

CENTRAL ARKANSAS

BEARSCARK

21-11  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
📊
BEARS
0%
EAGLES --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Central Arkansas)
EaglesFGCU (-3.5) 0 BearsCARK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

46.0%

Bears Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CARK -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CARK)

FGCU By 1-7 points

24.3%

FGCU By 8-14 points

13.7%

CARK By 1-7 points

26.2%

CARK By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
71
FLORIDA GULF COAST
72
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Simulated Score
72
FLORIDA GULF COAST
68
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bears Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bears (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Eagles (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 FGCU @ CARK 63 - 73
Feb 21, 2026 CARK @ FGCU 71 - 75
Jan 1, 2026 FGCU @ CARK 83 - 85
Jan 11, 2025 CARK @ FGCU 71 - 77
Feb 1, 2024 FGCU @ CARK 82 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +20.6% more
Central Arkansas: 15.6 vs Florida Gulf Coast: 12.9
Turnovers (L5) +18.7% more
Central Arkansas: 10.1 vs Florida Gulf Coast: 8.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +11.5%
Central Arkansas: 39.4% vs Florida Gulf Coast: 27.9%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.5%
Central Arkansas: 51.1% vs Florida Gulf Coast: 46.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FGCU Score 71.0 63
CARK Score 72.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.4 / 27.9 32.0 / 16.0
Assists 15.6 / 12.9 13.0 / 11.0
Blocks 1.8 / 3.0 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 51.1 / 46.7 43.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 80.6 / 76.5 62.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 30.6 / 36.5 41.0 / 40.0
Steals 8.3 / 8.2 7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 10.1 / 8.5 10.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FGCU
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
CARK Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +5.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FGCU
9-22-1 (29.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
CARK Advantage
19-10-3 (65.5%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +5.7
⚖️ Over/Under
FGCU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: +1.3
CARK
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CARK
FGCU
CARK
FGCU
ML
67% 22-11
58% 19-14
70% 23-10
67% 22-11
ATS
61% 20-13
61% 20-13
70% 23-10
67% 22-11
TTL
50% 16-16-1
61% 20-13
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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