Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Huskies @ Golden Eagles CONN @ MARQ

UCONN

HUSKIESCONN

27-3  |  Road

62
FINAL
Sat, Mar 7 • 12:30 PM ET
Fiserv Forum
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MARQUETTE

GOLDEN EAGLESMARQ

11-19  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
HUSKIES
100%
📊
GOLDEN EAGLES
0%
HUSKIES --
GOLDEN EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
MARQUETTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Marquette)
HuskiesCONN (-3.5) 0 Golden EaglesMARQ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Huskies Cover

24.2%

Golden Eagles Cover

75.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MARQ -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MARQ)

CONN By 1-7 points

15.3%

CONN By 8-14 points

5.8%

MARQ By 1-7 points

26.2%

MARQ By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
66
UCONN
73
MARQUETTE
Simulated Score
72
UCONN
78
MARQUETTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Golden Eagles Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Eagles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Golden Eagles (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Golden Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 CONN @ MARQ 62 - 68
Jan 4, 2026 MARQ @ CONN 57 - 73
Mar 5, 2025 MARQ @ CONN 66 - 72
Feb 1, 2025 CONN @ MARQ 77 - 69
Mar 16, 2024 MARQ @ CONN 57 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +70.0% more
Marquette: 11.0 vs UConn: 6.5
Turnovers (L5) +14.2% more
Marquette: 12.3 vs UConn: 10.8
Blocks (L5) +46.6% more
UConn: 5.6 vs Marquette: 3.0
Assists (L5) +26.2% more
UConn: 18.9 vs Marquette: 13.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CONN Score 66.0 62
MARQ Score 73.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.8 / 36.6 38.0 / 13.0
Assists 13.9 / 18.9 16.0 / 16.0
Blocks 3.0 / 5.6 0.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.0 / 48.2 48.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 67.5 / 73.2 61.0 / 94.0
Rebounding 33.1 / 34.8 25.0 / 40.0
Steals 11.0 / 6.5 10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.3 / 10.8 13.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
98%TICKETS2%
97%MONEY3%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
78%MONEY22%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CONN Advantage
34-6-0 (85.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
MARQ
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CONN Advantage
18-22-0 (45.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
MARQ
12-19-1 (38.7%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
CONN
19-21-0
O: 47.5% / U: 52.5% Total +/-: -1.5
MARQ
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: -1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MARQ
CONN
MARQ
CONN
ML
59% 19-13
76% 29-9
62% 20-12
66% 23-12
ATS
53% 17-15
74% 28-10
62% 20-12
66% 23-12
TTL
50% 16-16
50% 19-19
100% 32-0
100% 35-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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