Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Cardinals @ Hurricanes LOU @ MIA

LOUISVILLE

CARDINALSLOU

21-9  |  Road

92
FINAL
Sat, Mar 7 • 2:00 PM ET
Watsco Center
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

HURRICANESMIA

24-6  |  Home

89
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
0%
📊
HURRICANES
100%
CARDINALS --
HURRICANES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
LOUISVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Louisville)
CardinalsLOU (-3.5) 0 HurricanesMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

81.6%

Hurricanes Cover

18.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LOU -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LOU)

LOU By 1-7 points

24.3%

LOU By 8-14 points

26.8%

MIA By 1-7 points

12.2%

MIA By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
75
LOUISVILLE
66
MIAMI
Simulated Score
73
LOUISVILLE
78
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cardinals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hurricanes Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cardinals (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Hurricanes (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u155.5 Loss
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim u155.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 LOU @ MIA 73 - 78
Mar 7, 2026 LOU @ MIA 92 - 89
Feb 8, 2025 MIA @ LOU 78 - 88
Jan 10, 2024 LOU @ MIA 80 - 71
Feb 11, 2023 LOU @ MIA 85 - 93
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +9.5%
Louisville: 76.4% vs Miami: 66.8%
Steals (L5) +34.3% more
Miami: 8.6 vs Louisville: 6.4
Turnovers (L5) +16.5% more
Miami: 13.3 vs Louisville: 11.4
Blocks (L5) +15.0% more
Miami: 3.7 vs Louisville: 3.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LOU Score 75.0 92
MIA Score 66.0 89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 44.6 / 37.5 42.0 / 50.0
Assists 15.9 / 14.8 22.0 / 22.0
Blocks 3.7 / 3.2 1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 48.8 / 45.2 56.0 / 60.0
Free Throw % 66.8 / 76.4 83.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 36.6 / 36.5 26.0 / 22.0
Steals 8.6 / 6.4 5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 13.3 / 11.4 8.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LOU
24-11-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +0.3
MIA Advantage
26-9-0 (74.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LOU
17-18-0 (48.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +0.3
MIA Advantage
18-15-1 (54.6%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
LOU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -3.6
MIA
21-12-1
O: 63.6% / U: 36.4% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
LOU
MIA
LOU
ML
63% 22-13
63% 22-13
64% 21-12
71% 24-10
ATS
63% 22-13
71% 25-10
64% 21-12
71% 24-10
TTL
63% 22-13
63% 22-13
100% 33-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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